The School of Odds
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Edmonton Oilers v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 23:15 UTC

Final: Edmonton Oilers 2–7 Toronto Maple Leafs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Edmonton Oilers (Local)

Prediction 57.04%1.75fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.33%57.09%57.07%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.671.671.7263.29%59.94%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 42.96%2.33fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.912%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%42.91%42.93%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.242.3047.62%44.79%44.64%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Edmonton Oilers (Local): 57.04%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 42.96%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -1.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57%EV -1.90%E -1.10%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43%EV -3.76%E -1.68%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-24 23:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -2.47%E -1.44%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -3.76%E -1.68%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-24 22:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -2.47%E -1.44%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -3.76%E -1.68%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-24 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:39
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:39
BetUS🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:50
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 22:39
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 22:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -6.34%E -2.91%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 22:59
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.18%E -2.49%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.76%E -1.68%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 22:38
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.18%E -2.49%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.76%E -1.68%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 23:00
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -4.18%E -2.49%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -4.62%E -2.08%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 22:45
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.18%E -2.49%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 22:49
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.18%E -2.49%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 22:50
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.19%E -0.515%K -0.912%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 23:10
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 22:38
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 22:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 22:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 22:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 22:45
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 22:55
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 22:55
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.05%E -2.29%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 22:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 21:35
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 21:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.75%E -2.84%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 21:35
Caesars🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -5.32%E -3.20%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -4.62%E -2.08%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 23:05
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.19%E -0.515%K -0.912%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 23:05
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.19%E -0.515%K -0.912%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 21:30
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 23:09
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 23:09
ReBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 23:09
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 21:10
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.89%E -3.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.48%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 22:50
GTbets🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -6.46%E -3.94%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -2.47%E -1.09%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 23:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 23:09
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.07%EV -9.88%E -6.25%K -17.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.46%2.35I 42.55%NM 42.54%0.0%2026-10-24 22:55
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-10-24 23:05
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-10-24 23:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.28%1.3%2026-10-24 23:10
Novig◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.67%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.33%1.4%2026-10-24 23:10
ProphetX◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%1.9%2026-10-24 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%2.5%2026-10-24 23:10
Matchbook◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%3.1%2026-10-24 23:10
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-10-24 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 47.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.74%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.72%1.6%2026-10-24 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.66%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%3.5%2026-10-24 23:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.66%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%3.5%2026-10-24 23:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.66%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%3.5%2026-10-24 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.74%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.37%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89%4.7%2026-10-24 23:10
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.00%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.36%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.63%4.8%2026-10-24 22:55
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.38%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%5.5%2026-10-24 23:10
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%5.6%2026-10-24 21:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%5.6%2026-10-24 21:15
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%5.6%2026-10-24 21:15
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%6.3%2026-10-24 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.89%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-10-24 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.75%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.70%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.55%6.9%2026-10-24 23:10
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.65%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.34%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%8.2%2026-10-24 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.49%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.91%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%8.5%2026-10-24 23:09
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.31%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-24 23:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.24%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.40%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%8.9%2026-10-24 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.53%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.84%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.63%10.7%2026-10-24 23:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.11%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.34%11.7%2026-10-24 23:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.35%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.98%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.66%16.6%2026-10-24 23:09