The School of Odds
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Edmonton Oilers v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Edmonton Oilers (Local)

Prediction 45.14%2.22fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.729%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%45.12%45.05%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.132.142.1850.76%47.05%46.73%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 54.86%1.82fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%54.88%54.95%56.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.731.731.7963.29%57.74%57.80%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Edmonton Oilers (Local): 45.14%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 54.86%. For Edmonton Oilers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -1.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -1.59%E -0.729%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -6.19%E -3.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 01:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -1.59%E -0.729%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -6.19%E -3.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 01:59
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -2.04%E -0.941%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -5.64%E -3.28%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 01:55
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -2.49%E -1.15%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -6.19%E -3.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 02:00
GTbets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.55%E -2.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 18:35
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.55%E -2.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 23:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.55%E -2.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 00:34
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.55%E -2.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 21:34
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.55%E -2.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 16:25
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.55%E -2.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 17:19
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 23:54
Bally Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 23:55
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 16:25
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.19%E -3.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 00:59
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -3.40%E -1.59%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -1.80%E -1.01%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-22 01:00
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.40%E -1.59%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.55%E -2.61%K -6.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-21 18:34
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.40%E -1.59%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.64%E -3.28%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 23:55
MyBookie.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.40%E -1.59%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.64%E -3.28%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 01:58
SportsBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -3.40%E -1.59%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -6.19%E -3.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 01:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.52%EV -3.85%E -1.81%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.48%EV -2.35%E -1.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-22 02:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.52%EV -3.85%E -1.81%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.48%EV -2.35%E -1.32%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-22 02:00
Bet Right🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.85%E -1.81%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.00%E -2.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 02:00
ReBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.85%E -1.81%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.00%E -2.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 01:58
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.30%E -2.03%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.64%E -3.28%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 01:59
Betsson🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.75%E -2.25%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 02:00
NordicBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.75%E -2.25%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 01:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.90%E -1.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 17:49
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.90%E -1.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 01:59
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.90%E -1.64%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 01:59
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.10%E -2.95%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 15:25
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.64%E -3.28%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 21:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.64%E -3.28%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 21:35
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.19%E -3.62%K -8.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 02:00
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.20%E -2.48%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.74%E -3.97%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 01:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.46%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.00%E -2.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-21 21:34
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.46%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.00%E -2.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 01:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.51%EV -11.07%E -5.62%K -11.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.49%EV -13.32%E -8.43%K -22.97%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-22 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.23I 44.84%NM 45.07%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.93%-0.5%2026-03-22 01:59
Novig◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%0.6%2026-03-22 01:59
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-03-22 02:00
ProphetX◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-03-22 02:00
Polymarket◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-03-22 01:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%1.2%2026-03-22 02:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%1.2%2026-03-22 02:00
Matchbook◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%1.2%2026-03-22 02:00
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%1.6%2026-03-22 01:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.66%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.28%3.2%2026-03-21 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.66%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.28%3.2%2026-03-21 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.66%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.28%3.2%2026-03-21 23:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.66%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.28%3.2%2026-03-21 23:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.38%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.88%3.9%2026-03-22 01:59
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.20%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.53%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.27%4.4%2026-03-22 01:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.40%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.87%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%4.6%2026-03-22 01:59
1xBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.60%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.80%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.60%4.7%2026-03-22 01:59
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.13%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%4.9%2026-03-21 23:54
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.13%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%4.9%2026-03-21 23:54
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.13%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%4.9%2026-03-21 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.13%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%4.9%2026-03-21 23:55
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-03-21 23:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.62%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%6.7%2026-03-21 19:00
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.88%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%7.3%2026-03-21 23:55
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.97%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.52%8.3%2026-03-22 02:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.64%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.50%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%8.9%2026-03-22 02:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%9.2%2026-03-22 01:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.18%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.27%9.3%2026-03-22 01:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.33%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.74%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.92%9.9%2026-03-22 01:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.43%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%10.9%2026-03-22 01:48
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.97%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.71%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.32%14.4%2026-03-21 23:29