The School of Odds
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Detroit Red Wings v Philadelphia Flyers

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 23:38 UTC

Final: Detroit Red Wings 2–1 Philadelphia Flyers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Red Wings (Local)

Prediction 56.87%1.76fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.605%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.76%56.96%58.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.681.691.7463.29%59.41%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)

Prediction 43.13%2.32fair odd
EV +0.501%
Edge +0.215%
Kelly +0.377%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.60%43.24%43.04%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.212.202.3348.31%45.31%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Detroit Red Wings (Local): 56.87%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 43.13%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.501%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -5.60%E -3.37%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV +0.501%E +0.215%K +0.377%G +0.002%3.2%2026-10-15 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -5.60%E -3.37%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV +0.501%E +0.215%K +0.377%G +0.002%3.2%2026-10-15 22:20
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.83%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.17%EV -1.22%E -0.535%K -0.949%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-15 23:00
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04%EV -2.76%E -1.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96%EV -2.09%E -0.919%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.5%2026-10-15 21:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-15 22:20
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-15 21:19
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-15 23:35
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-15 22:35
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-15 21:19
Caesars🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 23:24
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:20
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.95%E -1.31%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:20
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.46%E -2.66%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.38%E -1.51%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 22:55
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-15 23:30
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -3.81%E -1.71%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-15 23:30
Betsson🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.68%E -2.12%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.68%E -2.12%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 23:10
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:10
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 21:19
Paddy Power🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 21:20
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 23:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 21:20
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.46%E -2.66%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 22:19
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.46%E -2.66%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 22:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.46%E -2.66%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 22:49
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.03%E -3.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:35
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.17%E -3.74%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.17%E -3.74%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.11%E -2.32%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 22:20
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -2.76%E -1.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -5.97%E -2.74%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 22:05
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -3.90%E -2.30%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.97%E -2.74%K -5.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 23:35
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.05%E -0.605%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -7.26%E -3.38%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 23:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.26%E -3.38%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-14 20:29
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.26%E -3.38%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.76%E -1.61%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.42%E -4.49%K -8.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 23:30
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.42%E -4.49%K -8.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 23:20
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.42%E -4.49%K -8.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 23:19
ReBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.33%E -1.96%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.42%E -4.49%K -8.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 23:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.71%EV -10.15%E -6.42%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -10.71%E -5.18%K -10.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 22:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-10-15 23:10
ProphetX◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-10-15 23:30
Novig◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.74%2.35I 42.55%NM 42.26%0.7%2026-10-15 23:35
Polymarket◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-10-15 21:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-10-15 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-10-15 23:25
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-10-15 23:35
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%2.2%2026-10-15 22:45
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%2.3%2026-10-15 23:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 44.33%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.41%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.26%1.2%2026-10-15 23:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-10-15 23:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-10-15 23:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-10-15 23:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.90%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.58%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.52%4.5%2026-10-15 23:30
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.32%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.61%4.6%2026-10-15 23:25
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.38%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%4.8%2026-10-15 21:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%5.6%2026-10-15 23:30
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%5.6%2026-10-15 23:30
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%5.6%2026-10-15 23:30
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%5.6%2026-10-15 23:30
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.38%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-10-15 23:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%6.5%2026-10-15 21:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.89%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.12%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%7.0%2026-10-15 23:30
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%7.9%2026-10-15 23:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.90%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.95%8.5%2026-10-15 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.95%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%8.9%2026-10-15 21:35
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%9.7%2026-10-15 23:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.98%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%10.9%2026-10-15 23:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%12.7%2026-10-15 23:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.69%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.81%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%15.0%2026-10-15 23:00