The School of Odds
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Dallas Stars v New York Islanders

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 22:10 UTC

Final: Dallas Stars 6–3 New York Islanders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Stars (Local)

Prediction 61.98%1.61fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%62.10%61.96%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.541.541.5769.93%64.94%64.94%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Islanders (Visit)

Prediction 38.02%2.63fair odd
EV +0.756%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.458%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%37.90%38.04%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.512.502.6541.32%39.83%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dallas Stars (Local): 61.98%; New York Islanders (Visit): 38.02%. For New York Islanders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.756%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -7.03%E -4.69%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +0.756%E +0.285%K +0.458%G +0.003%4.4%2026-10-25 21:41
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.15%E -0.440%K -0.716%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-25 22:00
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.15%E -0.440%K -0.716%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-25 22:00
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.41%EV -3.31%E -2.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.589%K -0.959%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-25 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.56%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.44%EV -1.53%E -0.589%K -0.959%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-25 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.56%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.44%EV -1.53%E -0.589%K -0.959%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-25 21:55
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.47%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.53%EV -1.91%E -0.739%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-25 21:20
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.31%E -2.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.05%E -1.19%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-25 21:55
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.05%E -1.19%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 20:50
GTbets🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.05%E -1.19%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 21:55
BetAnything🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.05%E -1.19%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 21:20
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.05%E -1.19%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-25 20:58
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -3.43%E -1.35%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 20:50
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -3.43%E -1.35%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 21:19
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -2.69%E -1.72%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-25 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.31%E -2.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 08:40
Paddy Power🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.31%E -2.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 20:58
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.31%E -2.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.31%E -2.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-25 20:58
FanDuel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-25 20:59
Caesars🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-25 20:45
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 05:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 05:00
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 04:59
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 20:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.95%E -1.98%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 20:58
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -5.33%E -2.14%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 21:36
MyBookie.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -5.71%E -2.30%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-25 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.71%E -2.30%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 20:45
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.55%E -2.96%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.71%E -2.30%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 20:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 21:55
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 20:50
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 20:50
ReBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 21:59
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 21:46
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 21:47
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 20:58
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 20:58
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.17%E -3.38%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 22:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.86%EV -11.37%E -7.95%K -26.44%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.14%EV -7.99%E -3.30%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-25 17:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68%2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32%0.3%2026-10-25 20:05
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-10-25 14:00
Polymarket◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-10-25 13:45
ProphetX◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-10-25 22:05
Matchbook◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.4%2026-10-25 22:02
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.4%2026-10-25 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%1.4%2026-10-25 22:02
BetOpenly◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.45%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.55%1.7%2026-10-25 21:59
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%2.1%2026-10-25 22:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.57%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48%1.4%2026-10-25 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%3.2%2026-10-25 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%3.2%2026-10-25 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%3.2%2026-10-25 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.70%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.30%4.7%2026-10-25 22:00
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.25%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.00%4.7%2026-10-25 21:55
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%4.7%2026-10-25 21:46
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.24%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%5.3%2026-10-25 22:00
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-10-25 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-10-25 22:00
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.18%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.6%2026-10-25 22:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%6.7%2026-10-25 21:40
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%6.8%2026-10-25 22:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.87%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.37%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%6.8%2026-10-25 22:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.09%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%8.4%2026-10-25 22:00
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.38%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%8.5%2026-10-25 22:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.08%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.82%9.5%2026-10-25 21:41
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%10.6%2026-10-25 22:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%11.6%2026-10-25 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 48.59%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.52%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.89%15.0%2026-10-25 21:47