La escuela de los momios

Columbus Blue Jackets v Seattle Kraken

Inicio: 2026-03-21 21:10 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Columbus Blue Jackets (Local)

Predicción 62.04%1.61momio equitativo
EV -2.59%
Ventaja -1.65%
Kelly -4.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.61%62.10%61.88%63.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.541.551.5769.93%64.83%64.52%63.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Seattle Kraken (Visitante)

Predicción 37.96%2.63momio equitativo
EV -0.175%
Ventaja -0.066%
Kelly -0.107%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.56%37.90%38.12%39.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.512.502.6343.48%39.83%40.00%38.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

22 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
ReBet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -2.59%E -1.65%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -5.87%E -2.37%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 20:44
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 62.59%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.41%EV -0.934%E -0.358%K -0.580%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-21 21:04
Everygame1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -1.31%E -0.505%K -0.821%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-21 17:09
BetUS1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-21 21:04
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 14:39
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 14:33
Paddy Power1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 20:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 20:59
MyBookie.ag1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.01%E -2.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 20:49
Hard Rock Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.21%E -2.06%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.90%E -3.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 21:04
BetOnline.ag1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.31%E -0.505%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-21 21:04
LowVig.ag1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.31%E -0.505%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-21 21:04
Bet Right1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -4.35%E -1.73%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-21 18:34
FanDuel1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 20:59
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 14:45
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.01%E -2.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 12:59
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.01%E -2.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 18:45
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.90%E -3.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 20:45
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.90%E -3.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.90%E -3.71%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 14:44
BetAnything1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -4.45%E -2.89%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -1.31%E -0.505%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 20:40
GTbets1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.45%E -2.89%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-21 21:04
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.45%E -2.89%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-21 21:04
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.45%E -2.89%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 14:43
SportsBet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -4.45%E -2.89%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -5.49%E -2.20%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 20:59
Betsson1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -4.45%E -2.89%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -6.25%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 20:54
NordicBet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -4.45%E -2.89%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%EV -6.25%E -2.53%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 20:54
Bovada1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -5.07%E -3.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -0.175%E -0.066%K -0.107%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 21:03
PointsBet (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -5.07%E -3.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -1.31%E -0.505%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-21 18:39
BetRivers1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.07%E -3.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 17:44
betPARX1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.07%E -3.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 17:44
Bally Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.07%E -3.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 17:45
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.07%E -3.32%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.11%E -2.04%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 18:39
Caesars1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -6.31%E -4.18%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -0.554%E -0.211%K -0.342%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-21 17:09
Fliff1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.31%E -4.18%K -12.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.21%E -1.26%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 20:44
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.66%EV -11.28%E -7.89%K -26.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.34%EV -12.70%E -5.52%K -9.77%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-21 15:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-03-21 21:04
Polymarket1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-03-21 20:59
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-03-21 14:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-03-21 21:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.21%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79%1.4%2026-03-21 21:04
ProphetX1.55I 64.52%NM 63.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64%1.8%2026-03-21 21:04
Novig1.55I 64.52%NM 63.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64%1.8%2026-03-21 21:00
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 63.01%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%2.4%2026-03-21 21:00

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (22)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-03-21 17:45
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-03-21 17:45
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-03-21 17:45
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-03-21 21:04
Unibet (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%3.9%2026-03-21 20:44
Coolbet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.75%4.5%2026-03-21 21:00
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.03%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.35%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.62%4.7%2026-03-21 20:54
Marathon Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.10%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%4.8%2026-03-21 20:34
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-21 17:44
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-21 17:45
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-21 17:45
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-03-21 17:45
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 51.45%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%6.2%2026-03-21 17:50
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%6.5%2026-03-21 18:39
Betway1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%6.9%2026-03-21 20:59
LeoVegas1.81I 55.25%NM 51.40%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%7.5%2026-03-21 17:45
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 50.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.24%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%8.4%2026-03-21 20:59
Parions Sport (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.01%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%9.1%2026-03-21 20:49
Codere (IT)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.01%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%9.1%2026-03-21 20:44
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.56%9.3%2026-03-21 21:04
Unibet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.28%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%9.7%2026-03-21 21:04
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 49.55%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.04%13.4%2026-03-21 20:59