The School of Odds
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Calgary Flames v Minnesota Wild

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 01:08 UTC

Final: Calgary Flames 2–1 Minnesota Wild

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Calgary Flames (Local)

Prediction 35.01%2.86fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%35.18%34.96%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.702.722.8039.22%37.02%36.76%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Minnesota Wild (Visit)

Prediction 64.99%1.54fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -5.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%64.82%65.04%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.481.481.5072.46%67.75%67.57%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Calgary Flames (Local): 35.01%; Minnesota Wild (Visit): 64.99%. For Calgary Flames (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV -1.96%E -0.701%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-22 23:10
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -1.96%E -0.701%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 00:50
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.96%E -0.701%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.12%E -3.51%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 23:55
Caesars🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.96%E -0.701%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.12%E -3.51%K -11.13%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-23 01:03
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.96%E -0.701%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.77%E -3.98%K -12.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-23 01:05
Fliff🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -1.96%E -0.701%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -6.42%E -4.46%K -14.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 00:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -2.31%E -0.829%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -3.17%E -2.13%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-23 00:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -2.31%E -0.829%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV -3.17%E -2.13%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-23 01:00
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.17%E -2.13%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-23 00:58
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-23 00:30
GTbets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-23 01:00
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-23 01:00
theScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-23 01:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-22 17:24
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 23:53
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 22:55
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 22:50
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 22:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.71%E -1.35%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.77%E -3.98%K -12.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 17:25
FanDuel🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -4.76%E -1.75%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 01:05
SportsBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -4.76%E -1.75%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -5.12%E -3.51%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 01:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-23 00:35
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-23 00:35
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-23 00:34
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-23 01:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:34
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -5.46%E -2.02%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.12%E -3.51%K -11.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-23 00:40
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -6.16%E -2.30%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 00:35
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -6.16%E -2.30%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -4.47%E -3.04%K -9.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 00:40
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -7.21%E -2.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 23:55
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.96%E -3.45%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 20:35
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.96%E -3.45%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.96%E -3.45%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 20:35
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.96%E -3.45%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-23 00:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.96%E -3.45%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.82%E -2.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-23 00:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.94%EV -10.01%E -3.90%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.06%EV -10.32%E -7.48%K -27.16%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 00:55
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.71%E -4.20%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 00:48
ReBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.71%E -4.20%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 00:59
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.71%E -4.20%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 00:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.71%E -4.20%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.52%E -1.68%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 01:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%0.3%2026-10-23 01:05
ProphetX◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-10-23 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%0.7%2026-10-23 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%0.7%2026-10-23 01:05
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%0.8%2026-10-22 18:10
Polymarket◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%1.1%2026-10-23 01:05
Matchbook◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91%1.1%2026-10-23 01:00
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75%1.4%2026-10-23 01:05
BetOpenly◎2.75I 36.36%NM 35.45%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.55%2.6%2026-10-23 00:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.42%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96%1.5%2026-10-22 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%3.2%2026-10-22 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%3.2%2026-10-22 22:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%3.2%2026-10-22 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.57%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.6%2026-10-23 01:00
1xBet🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 26.04%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.81%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.15%4.6%2026-10-23 00:55
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%4.9%2026-10-23 00:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%5.3%2026-10-23 00:50
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%5.3%2026-10-23 00:45
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.10%5.3%2026-10-23 00:50
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%6.0%2026-10-22 22:50
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.53%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%6.0%2026-10-22 22:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%6.9%2026-10-22 21:04
Marathon Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%7.1%2026-10-23 01:05
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%7.9%2026-10-23 01:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%8.8%2026-10-23 01:00
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%9.5%2026-10-23 00:30
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.22%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%10.9%2026-10-23 01:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.16%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.45%12.3%2026-10-23 01:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.51%16.9%2026-10-23 01:00