Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Sabres v Philadelphia Flyers

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 23:38 UTC

Final: Buffalo Sabres 1–3 Philadelphia Flyers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Sabres (Local)

Prediction 64.70%1.55fair odd

EV -2.95%

Edge -1.97%

Kelly -5.90%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.96%64.74%64.74%66.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.391.481.481.5071.94%67.65%67.57%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Flyers (Visit)

Prediction 35.30%2.83fair odd

EV +1.31%

Edge +0.457%

Kelly +0.702%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.87%35.26%35.26%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.552.692.702.8739.22%37.19%37.04%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 64.70%; Philadelphia Flyers (Visit): 35.30%. For Philadelphia Flyers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.31%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -4.89%E -3.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV +1.31%E +0.457%K +0.702%G +0.009%	2.9%	2026-10-21 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -4.89%E -3.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV +1.31%E +0.457%K +0.702%G +0.009%	2.9%	2026-10-21 23:25
Pinnacle🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%EV -4.24%E -2.87%K -8.84%G +0.000%	2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%EV +0.254%E +0.089%K +0.138%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-21 23:30
DraftKings🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.54%E -3.79%K -12.04%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.16%E -0.414%K -0.643%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-21 22:50
GTbets🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.19%E -4.27%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.16%E -0.414%K -0.643%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-21 22:49
BetAnything🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.19%E -4.27%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.16%E -0.414%K -0.643%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-21 23:25
BetUS🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.92%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-10-21 22:50
Everygame🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -2.92%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-10-21 23:34
Caesars🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.24%E -2.87%K -8.84%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.92%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-21 23:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.24%E -2.87%K -8.84%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.92%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-21 23:20
Fanatics🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.89%E -3.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.92%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-21 23:20
Betr (AU)🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.19%E -4.27%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.92%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-21 23:25
Fliff🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.19%E -4.27%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.92%E -1.06%K -1.67%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-21 23:35
Bovada🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -3.63%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-21 22:50
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16%EV -5.54%E -3.79%K -12.04%G +0.000%	2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84%EV -3.63%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 22:55
FanDuel🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -4.24%E -2.87%K -8.84%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -3.98%E -1.46%K -2.32%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-21 23:20
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.69%E -1.74%K -2.76%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-21 22:50
BetRivers🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.69%E -1.74%K -2.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-21 23:15
betPARX🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.69%E -1.74%K -2.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-21 23:14
Bally Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.69%E -1.74%K -2.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-21 23:14
Paddy Power🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.69%E -1.74%K -2.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-21 23:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.69%E -1.74%K -2.76%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-21 23:35
Bet Right🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.89%E -3.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.69%E -1.74%K -2.76%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 21:15
SportsBet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%EV -4.89%E -3.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%	2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%EV -5.04%E -1.87%K -2.98%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-21 23:34
BetMGM🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.45%E -2.44%K -3.91%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-21 18:45
PlayUp🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.24%E -2.87%K -8.84%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.45%E -2.44%K -3.91%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-21 23:35
NordicBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.16%E -2.72%K -4.39%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 23:25
Betsson🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.60%E -2.41%K -7.34%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.16%E -2.72%K -4.39%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 23:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.51%E -2.87%K -4.64%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-21 18:44
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.51%E -2.87%K -4.64%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-21 18:44
TAB🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 18:44
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 21:10
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 21:09
888sport (SE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-21 21:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.24%E -2.87%K -8.84%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-21 23:30
ReBet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.89%E -3.33%K -10.41%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-21 23:30
Bet Victor🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.19%E -4.27%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-10-21 23:19
betano_uk🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.19%E -4.27%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.22%E -3.16%K -5.14%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-10-21 23:15
Neds🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.98%E -3.92%K -6.44%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-21 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.95%E -1.97%K -5.90%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.98%E -3.92%K -6.44%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-21 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -10.07%E -7.24%K -25.82%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -9.98%E -3.92%K -6.44%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-10-21 23:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Matchbook◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%	0.2%	2026-10-21 23:35
ProphetX◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 66.07%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.93%	0.2%	2026-10-21 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%	0.7%	2026-10-21 23:35
Polymarket◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	0.8%	2026-10-21 20:30
Kalshi◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%	1.1%	2026-10-21 23:30
Novig◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%	1.1%	2026-10-21 23:35
Smarkets◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79%	1.4%	2026-10-21 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.06%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94%	1.6%	2026-10-21 23:35
BetOpenly◎	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%	2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%	3.5%	2026-10-21 23:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
ATG (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 53.36%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64%	4.70I 21.28%NM 21.00%	1.3%	2026-10-21 23:15
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 53.16%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.80%	4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%	3.4%	2026-10-21 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 53.16%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.80%	4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%	3.4%	2026-10-21 23:14
Svenska Spel🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 53.16%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.80%	4.60I 21.74%NM 21.03%	3.4%	2026-10-21 23:15
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%	4.4%	2026-10-21 23:30
Coolbet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.01%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%	4.8%	2026-10-21 23:25
1xBet🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.42%	3.61I 27.70%NM 26.43%	4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%	4.8%	2026-10-21 23:25
Casumo🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.15%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%	5.1%	2026-10-21 23:14
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.15%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%	5.1%	2026-10-21 23:15
Unibet🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.15%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%	5.1%	2026-10-21 23:15
Grosvenor🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%	6.1%	2026-10-21 23:14
TABtouch🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%	6.1%	2026-10-21 23:15
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%	6.5%	2026-10-21 23:25
Marathon Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.34%	3.88I 25.77%NM 24.10%	4.55I 21.98%NM 20.56%	6.9%	2026-10-21 23:35
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%	8.7%	2026-10-21 23:30
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.10%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%	9.1%	2026-10-21 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.69%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%	9.3%	2026-10-21 23:25
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%	3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%	11.6%	2026-10-21 23:34
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 51.04%	3.25I 30.77%NM 26.86%	3.95I 25.32%NM 22.10%	14.6%	2026-10-21 23:20