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Buffalo Sabres v Ottawa Senators

2026-11-05 00:40 UTC — NHL

Resultado del partido

31 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Buffalo Sabres (Local)

Predicción 54.45%1.84momio equitativo
EV -1.99%
Ventaja -1.11%
Kelly -2.49%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.25%54.68%54.64%58.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.741.751.8061.73%57.40%57.14%55.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ottawa Senators (Visitante)

Predicción 45.55%2.20momio equitativo
EV +4.76%
Ventaja +2.07%
Kelly +3.67%
Crecimiento +0.175%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.43%45.32%45.36%46.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.102.102.3050.00%47.52%47.62%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 54.45%; Ottawa Senators (Visitante): 45.55%. Para Ottawa Senators (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.20. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.30, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.76%.

19 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -11.25%E -6.90%K -17.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV +4.76%E +2.07%K +3.67%G +0.175%4.8%2026-11-03 19:20
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -11.79%E -7.28%K -19.02%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV +4.31%E +1.88%K +3.34%G +0.144%5.4%2026-11-03 19:20
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -11.79%E -7.28%K -19.02%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV +4.31%E +1.88%K +3.34%G +0.144%5.4%2026-11-03 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.07%E -0.962%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-03 17:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.07%E -0.962%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-03 17:30
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.07%E -0.962%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-03 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -2.52%E -1.18%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-03 17:59
Caesars🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.17%E -2.37%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.43%E -1.62%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-03 18:25
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-03 17:59
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-03 17:35
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-03 18:09
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-03 18:10
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.62%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-03 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 17:59
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 18:00
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 19:15
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-03 18:00
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-03 16:10
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-03 16:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.35%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-03 16:09
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.08%E -1.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -5.26%E -2.53%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-03 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.99%E -1.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-03 17:58
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.99%E -1.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-03 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -2.53%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-03 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-03 16:25
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-03 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-03 18:00
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -3.08%E -1.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.08%E -3.47%K -6.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-03 17:54
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -7.99%E -3.95%K -7.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-03 18:29
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-03 18:28
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-03 18:28
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-11-03 18:10
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-11-03 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%2.7%2026-11-03 18:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%2.7%2026-11-03 19:00
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%10.0%2026-11-03 18:30

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (19)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.65%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-11-03 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.65%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-11-03 18:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.65%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-11-03 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.65%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.62%2.8%2026-11-03 18:10
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.75%2.77I 36.10%NM 35.04%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.21%3.0%2026-11-03 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.98%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%4.7%2026-11-03 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.11%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%5.5%2026-11-03 18:30
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.43%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-11-03 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.43%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-11-03 18:10
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.43%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%5.7%2026-11-03 18:10
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-11-03 18:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.60%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%6.7%2026-11-03 18:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%8.1%2026-11-03 18:13
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.87%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%9.0%2026-11-03 18:30
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.33%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%9.9%2026-11-03 18:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.64%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%10.6%2026-11-03 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%10.6%2026-11-03 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.41%14.4%2026-11-03 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.62%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.64%17.0%2026-11-03 18:30
Arbitraje (22 combinaciones) +0.98%Paddy Power 1.80 (56.1%) / PlayUp 2.30 (43.9%)Ver las 22 combinaciones
Buffalo Sabres (Local)Ottawa Senators (Visitante)Margen
Paddy Power🎯 1.80 (56.1%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.9%)+0.976%
theScore Bet🎯 1.80 (56.1%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.9%)+0.976%
Paddy Power🎯 1.80 (56.0%)Betsson🎯 2.29 (44.0%)+0.782%
Paddy Power🎯 1.80 (56.0%)NordicBet🎯 2.29 (44.0%)+0.782%
theScore Bet🎯 1.80 (56.0%)Betsson🎯 2.29 (44.0%)+0.782%
theScore Bet🎯 1.80 (56.0%)NordicBet🎯 2.29 (44.0%)+0.782%
FanDuel🎯 1.79 (56.2%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.8%)+0.660%
FanDuel🎯 1.79 (56.1%)Betsson🎯 2.29 (43.9%)+0.468%
FanDuel🎯 1.79 (56.1%)NordicBet🎯 2.29 (43.9%)+0.468%
Bet Right🎯 1.78 (56.4%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.6%)+0.343%
SportsBet🎯 1.78 (56.4%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.6%)+0.343%
Bet Right🎯 1.78 (56.3%)Betsson🎯 2.29 (43.7%)+0.152%
Bet Right🎯 1.78 (56.3%)NordicBet🎯 2.29 (43.7%)+0.152%
SportsBet🎯 1.78 (56.3%)Betsson🎯 2.29 (43.7%)+0.152%
SportsBet🎯 1.78 (56.3%)NordicBet🎯 2.29 (43.7%)+0.152%
LowVig.ag🎯 1.77 (56.5%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.5%)+0.025%
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.77 (56.5%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.5%)+0.025%
Fanatics🎯 1.77 (56.5%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.5%)+0.025%
BetUS🎯 1.77 (56.5%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.5%)+0.025%
BetRivers🎯 1.77 (56.5%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.5%)+0.025%
Bally Bet🎯 1.77 (56.5%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.5%)+0.025%
betPARX🎯 1.77 (56.5%)PlayUp🎯 2.30 (43.5%)+0.025%