The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pyry v Ketterä

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pyry (Local)

Prediction 47.33%2.11fair odd
EV -0.600%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.545%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%47.15%47.33%47.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.012.002.1051.81%49.85%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ketterä (Visit)

Prediction 52.67%1.90fair odd
EV -6.25%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -8.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.45%52.85%52.67%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.731.7859.88%57.70%57.80%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pyry (Local): 47.33%; Ketterä (Visit): 52.67%. For Pyry (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -0.600%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -0.600%E -0.286%K -0.545%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -12.05%E -7.21%K -17.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 23:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.97%E -1.45%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.47%E -6.16%K -14.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:30
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.97%E -1.45%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.47%E -6.16%K -14.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 08:40
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.33%E -2.67%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.89%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.33%E -2.67%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.89%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 13:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.33%E -2.67%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.89%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-03 13:44
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -6.28%E -3.17%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 09:50
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -6.28%E -3.17%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-03 09:55
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -6.75%E -3.43%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 09:20
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -8.65%E -4.48%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -7.83%E -4.48%K -10.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-03 00:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.70%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%7.4%2026-10-03 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.8%2026-10-03 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.8%2026-10-03 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.8%2026-10-03 00:19
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.8%2026-10-03 00:20
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.8%2026-10-03 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.8%2026-10-03 00:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%9.8%2026-10-03 00:25
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%11.1%2026-10-03 09:15
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%11.8%2026-10-03 09:15