The School of Odds
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Pyry v Ketterä

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pyry (Local)

Prediction 52.01%1.92fair odd
EV +6.62%
Edge +3.23%
Kelly +6.30%
Growth +0.417%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%51.50%52.01%53.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.802.0556.82%54.02%55.56%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ketterä (Visit)

Prediction 47.99%2.08fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.93%48.50%47.99%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.881.911.9958.82%53.25%52.36%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pyry (Local): 52.01%; Ketterä (Visit): 47.99%. For Pyry (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.62%.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV +6.62%E +3.23%K +6.30%G +0.417%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -18.41%E -10.83%K -26.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 05:50
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV +6.62%E +3.23%K +6.30%G +0.417%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -18.41%E -10.83%K -26.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 05:50
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -1.71%E -0.902%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -13.13%E -7.26%K -16.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 08:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.39%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.34%E -4.36%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.39%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.34%E -4.36%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.39%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.34%E -4.36%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.39%E -3.55%K -7.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.34%E -4.36%K -9.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 13:45
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -7.43%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -5.46%E -2.77%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 10:55
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -7.43%E -4.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -5.46%E -2.77%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 10:55
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -8.47%E -4.81%K -11.14%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -4.50%E -2.26%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.27%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%8.4%2026-10-24 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%9.2%2026-10-24 08:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%9.2%2026-10-24 08:30
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%9.2%2026-10-24 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%9.2%2026-10-24 08:35
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%9.2%2026-10-24 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%9.2%2026-10-24 08:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.29%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%9.2%2026-10-24 08:35
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.22%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.29%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.49%9.8%2026-10-24 13:40
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%10.1%2026-10-24 13:45
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%11.8%2026-10-24 13:45