The School of Odds
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KeuPa HT v Hermes

2026-10-16 15:30 UTC — Mestis

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KeuPa HT (Local)

Prediction 43.92%2.28fair odd
EV -3.38%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.92%43.92%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.142.152.2047.62%46.67%46.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hermes (Visit)

Prediction 56.08%1.78fair odd
EV -6.34%
Edge -3.80%
Kelly -9.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%56.08%56.08%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.651.651.6761.73%60.61%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: KeuPa HT (Local): 43.92%; Hermes (Visit): 56.08%. For KeuPa HT (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -3.38%; they do not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.14%E -5.64%K -14.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.14%E -5.64%K -14.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 18:34
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 20:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.58%E -2.60%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 20:30
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -6.02%E -2.81%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 18:25
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.34%E -3.80%K -9.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.34%E -3.80%K -9.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.78%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.34%E -3.80%K -9.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.80%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%7.3%2026-10-15 18:28
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 33.54%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%8.8%2026-10-15 18:24
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%11.4%2026-10-15 21:35