The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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KeuPa HT v Hermes

Kickoff: 2026-02-24 16:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KeuPa HT (Local)

Prediction 38.85%2.57fair odd
EV -0.921%
Edge -0.361%
Kelly -0.594%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.25%38.81%38.85%41.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.262.422.422.5544.25%41.34%41.32%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hermes (Visit)

Prediction 61.15%1.64fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -4.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.70%61.19%61.15%63.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.521.5968.97%66.09%65.79%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KeuPa HT (Local): 38.85%; Hermes (Visit): 61.15%. For KeuPa HT (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -0.921%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -0.921%E -0.361%K -0.594%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -11.34%E -7.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-24 16:30
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.86%E -1.15%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.28%E -5.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-24 16:30
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -4.81%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -9.50%E -6.42%K -19.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -4.81%E -1.96%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -9.50%E -6.42%K -19.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 16:30
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -5.97%E -2.47%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -7.06%E -4.64%K -13.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-24 16:29
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -5.97%E -2.47%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -7.06%E -4.64%K -13.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-24 16:29
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.53%E -3.16%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.45%E -4.21%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-24 16:28
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.53%E -3.16%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.45%E -4.21%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-24 16:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.53%E -3.16%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.45%E -4.21%K -12.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-24 16:28
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.30%EV -12.19%E -5.39%K -9.67%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -2.78%E -1.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-24 16:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
LeoVegas🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-02-24 16:30
1xBet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 26.72%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.65%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%8.8%2026-02-24 16:27
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.11%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%10.7%2026-02-24 16:30
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%11.5%2026-02-24 16:30