The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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KeuPa HT v Haukat

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KeuPa HT (Local)

Prediction 78.41%1.28fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -4.92%
Kelly -29.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.92%78.72%78.41%80.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.2087.72%84.75%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Haukat (Visit)

Prediction 21.59%4.63fair odd
EV -0.686%
Edge -0.149%
Kelly -0.191%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.86%21.28%21.59%22.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.134.394.354.6024.21%22.77%22.99%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KeuPa HT (Local): 78.41%; Haukat (Visit): 21.59%. For Haukat (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.60, with an expected value of -0.686%; they did not produce positive expected value.

12 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.91%E -4.92%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 13:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.91%E -4.92%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 13:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.91%E -4.92%K -29.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.52%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 13:29
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -6.69%E -5.62%K -35.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -6.08%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 09:30
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -6.69%E -5.62%K -35.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -6.08%E -1.40%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 09:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.26%E -7.06%K -48.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.85%E -0.632%K -0.813%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 10:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.26%E -7.06%K -48.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.85%E -0.632%K -0.813%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 15:19
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -8.26%E -7.06%K -48.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.85%E -0.632%K -0.813%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 15:19
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.92%EV -8.26%E -7.06%K -48.59%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.08%EV -10.83%E -2.62%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 13:29
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.14%EV -10.61%E -9.31%K -75.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -0.686%E -0.149%K -0.191%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-03 10:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (12)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.83%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.33%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.84%6.1%2026-04-03 10:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.68%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%7.1%2026-04-04 13:30
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.75%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%7.7%2026-04-03 10:15
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%12.3%2026-04-04 13:29
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%12.3%2026-04-04 13:29