The School of Odds
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JoKP v Ketterä

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JoKP (Local)

Prediction 55.70%1.80fair odd
EV -5.86%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -8.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.17%56.08%55.70%60.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.611.6965.36%61.73%62.11%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ketterä (Visit)

Prediction 44.30%2.26fair odd
EV +4.98%
Edge +2.10%
Kelly +3.64%
Growth +0.181%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.23%43.92%44.30%44.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.182.202.3748.08%45.80%45.45%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JoKP (Local): 55.70%; Ketterä (Visit): 44.30%. For Ketterä (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.37, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.98%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -14.77%E -9.66%K -27.88%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV +4.98%E +2.10%K +3.64%G +0.181%7.6%2026-10-15 20:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -14.77%E -9.66%K -27.88%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV +4.98%E +2.10%K +3.64%G +0.181%7.6%2026-10-15 20:30
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.76%E -6.03%K -15.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-16 12:10
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-16 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-16 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.32%E -6.41%K -16.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-16 12:05
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 12:05
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.42%E -3.82%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 12:05
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.53%E -4.54%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 03:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -10.87%E -6.80%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-16 15:20
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.17%EV -5.86%E -3.47%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.83%EV -7.86%E -3.78%K -7.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-16 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%7.7%2026-10-16 12:10
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%8.2%2026-10-16 10:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%8.2%2026-10-16 10:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%8.2%2026-10-16 10:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%8.2%2026-10-16 10:39
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%8.2%2026-10-16 10:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%8.2%2026-10-16 10:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.75%8.2%2026-10-16 10:40
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.32%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.01%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.67%8.9%2026-10-16 12:49