Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

JoKP v Ketterä

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JoKP (Local)

Prediction 49.82%2.01fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%49.82%50.53%50.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.891.911.9554.35%52.91%52.36%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ketterä (Visit)

Prediction 50.18%1.99fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -5.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.20%50.18%49.47%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.841.801.9055.87%54.35%55.56%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JoKP (Local): 49.82%; Ketterä (Visit): 50.18%. For JoKP (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.95, with an expected value of -2.85%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -2.85%E -1.46%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.67%E -5.37%K -12.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-25 16:25
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%EV -3.85%E -2.00%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%EV -10.17%E -5.68%K -12.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-25 06:05
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.85%E -2.54%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.67%E -5.37%K -12.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-25 06:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.85%E -2.54%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.67%E -5.37%K -12.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-25 06:25
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -7.84%E -4.24%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -5.16%E -2.73%K -5.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 16:25
Betsson🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -8.33%E -4.53%K -9.92%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -4.65%E -2.45%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 11:59
NordicBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -8.33%E -4.53%K -9.92%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -4.65%E -2.45%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:04
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:05
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-25 06:05
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.15%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.52%9.6%2026-02-25 16:19
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.46%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%12.2%2026-02-25 11:59