Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.75
assuming max odds 1.29
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JoKP (Local): 25.81%; Jokerit (Visit): 74.19%. For JoKP (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -3.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.
9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -3.23%E -0.860%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.48%E -7.77%K -43.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 18:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -3.23%E -0.860%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.48%E -7.77%K -43.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.52%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.26%E -5.81%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 11:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.52%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.26%E -5.81%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 11:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.52%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -9.48%E -7.77%K -43.11%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -9.68%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.29%E -3.33%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-03 22:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.68%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.26%E -5.81%K -29.03%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-03 13:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.37%EV -13.03%E -3.87%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.63%EV -5.77%E -4.55%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-04 15:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.89% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39% | 8.5% | 2026-03-03 13:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.55% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.61% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.84% | 8.9% | 2026-03-04 15:55 |