The School of Odds
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Jokerit v Kiekko-Vantaa

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jokerit (Local)

Prediction 78.69%1.27fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -4.65%
Kelly -27.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.98%79.48%78.69%82.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.171.2090.09%85.96%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Vantaa (Visit)

Prediction 21.31%4.69fair odd
EV +11.90%
Edge +2.27%
Kelly +2.80%
Growth +0.333%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.45%20.52%21.31%22.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.604.505.2524.10%21.74%22.22%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jokerit (Local): 78.69%; Kiekko-Vantaa (Visit): 21.31%. For Kiekko-Vantaa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.69. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.90%.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.55%EV -12.66%E -11.40%K -115.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.45%EV +11.90%E +2.27%K +2.80%G +0.333%9.1%2026-03-18 14:00
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -10.30%E -9.03%K -73.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +6.57%E +1.31%K +1.64%G +0.108%7.7%2026-03-18 11:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -10.30%E -9.03%K -73.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +6.57%E +1.31%K +1.64%G +0.108%7.7%2026-03-18 11:30
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.94%E -6.78%K -46.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.09%E -0.909%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.94%E -6.78%K -46.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.09%E -0.909%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.94%E -6.78%K -46.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.09%E -0.909%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 12:59
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.58%E -4.65%K -27.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -9.42%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-18 13:14
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.58%E -4.65%K -27.88%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -9.42%E -2.22%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-18 13:14
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.01%EV -7.94%E -6.78%K -46.69%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.99%EV -11.55%E -2.78%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-18 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 13:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 13:59
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 13:59
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.01%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%8.7%2026-03-18 14:00
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.23%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.31%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.45%9.0%2026-03-18 15:10
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%11.5%2026-03-18 13:14
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%11.5%2026-03-18 15:30