The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

IPK v Hermes

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IPK (Local)

Prediction 64.20%1.56fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -7.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%63.85%64.20%65.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.461.5071.43%68.78%68.73%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hermes (Visit)

Prediction 35.80%2.79fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%36.15%35.80%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.592.602.7040.00%38.54%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IPK (Local): 64.20%; Hermes (Visit): 35.80%. For Hermes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -3.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.70%E -2.47%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.49%E -4.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 06:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.70%E -2.47%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.49%E -4.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 06:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.70%E -2.47%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.49%E -4.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 06:49
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.27%E -4.30%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 10:39
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.27%E -4.30%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 10:39
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.91%E -4.77%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.12%E -1.93%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 16:07
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.55%E -5.25%K -17.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-02 16:09
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -8.20%E -5.73%K -19.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -6.91%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-01 17:35
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -10.12%E -7.23%K -25.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -3.33%E -1.23%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-02 12:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -10.12%E -7.23%K -25.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -3.33%E -1.23%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-02 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:05
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:05
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%8.3%2026-03-01 17:04
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.68%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.22%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.10%8.9%2026-03-02 15:54
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%10.8%2026-03-02 07:12
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.34%11.6%2026-03-02 07:13