The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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IPK v Hermes

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IPK (Local)

Prediction 69.30%1.44fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.37%69.12%69.30%72.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.361.361.4277.52%73.48%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hermes (Visit)

Prediction 30.70%3.26fair odd
EV +4.38%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.82%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%30.88%30.70%34.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.682.963.003.4037.31%33.84%33.33%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IPK (Local): 69.30%; Hermes (Visit): 30.70%. For Hermes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.38%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -10.60%E -8.22%K -36.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +4.38%E +1.29%K +1.82%G +0.080%6.9%2026-09-23 15:25
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -8.52%E -6.46%K -26.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.37%E -2.09%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.75%E -4.23%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.90%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-23 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.75%E -4.23%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.90%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-23 05:44
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.75%E -4.23%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.90%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-23 05:45
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.83%E -5.89%K -23.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -7.90%E -2.63%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-23 00:30
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -5.06%E -3.69%K -13.67%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -10.36%E -3.55%K -5.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-23 15:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.98%E -2.13%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.58%E -5.66%K -8.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-22 23:40
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.98%E -2.13%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -15.58%E -5.66%K -8.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-22 23:40
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.37%EV -1.59%E -1.12%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.63%EV -17.73%E -6.61%K -10.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-23 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%7.5%2026-09-23 05:45
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%8.6%2026-09-21 14:33
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%8.6%2026-09-21 14:34
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%8.6%2026-09-21 14:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%8.6%2026-09-21 14:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%8.6%2026-09-21 14:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%8.6%2026-09-21 14:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%8.6%2026-09-21 14:34
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.77%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.68%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%8.9%2026-09-23 15:05
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%10.9%2026-09-23 05:45