The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hermes v Pyry

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hermes (Local)

Prediction 61.23%1.63fair odd
EV -5.71%
Edge -3.70%
Kelly -10.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.51%61.37%61.23%64.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5469.44%66.76%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pyry (Visit)

Prediction 38.77%2.58fair odd
EV +1.96%
Edge +0.747%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.38%38.63%38.77%39.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.452.6342.55%40.68%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hermes (Local): 61.23%; Pyry (Visit): 38.77%. For Pyry (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.96%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -11.83%E -8.21%K -26.88%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV +1.96%E +0.747%K +1.21%G +0.024%7.5%2026-09-25 18:55
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.08%E -1.23%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 08:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.08%E -1.23%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 08:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.08%E -1.23%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 08:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -9.38%E -6.34%K -19.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.01%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 11:50
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -9.38%E -6.34%K -19.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.01%E -2.05%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 11:50
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -6.93%E -4.56%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -6.18%E -2.55%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-26 11:50
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -6.93%E -4.56%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -6.18%E -2.55%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-26 11:49
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.51%EV -5.71%E -3.70%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49%EV -8.50%E -3.60%K -6.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 10:00
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.15%E -5.44%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.89%E -3.78%K -6.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-25 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%7.7%2026-09-26 07:19
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%8.8%2026-09-25 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%9.1%2026-09-25 19:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%9.1%2026-09-25 19:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%9.1%2026-09-25 19:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%9.1%2026-09-25 19:45
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%9.1%2026-09-25 19:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%9.1%2026-09-25 19:50
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%10.1%2026-09-26 07:19
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.98%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%11.2%2026-09-26 07:19