The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hermes v KeuPa HT

Kickoff: 2026-10-21 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hermes (Local)

Prediction 65.32%1.53fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -10.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.50%65.18%65.32%66.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.411.401.4672.46%70.72%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KeuPa HT (Visit)

Prediction 34.68%2.88fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.41%34.82%34.68%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.542.702.752.7539.37%37.00%36.36%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hermes (Local): 65.32%; KeuPa HT (Visit): 34.68%. For KeuPa HT (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -4.63%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.50%EV -4.63%E -3.17%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.50%EV -11.91%E -4.69%K -7.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-21 09:45
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -9.14%E -3.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 15:10
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -5.29%E -3.65%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -9.14%E -3.49%K -5.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 15:10
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.55%E -6.11%K -21.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-19 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.55%E -6.11%K -21.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-19 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.55%E -6.11%K -21.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-19 15:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.55%E -6.11%K -21.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-21 07:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.55%E -6.11%K -21.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 20:19
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.55%E -6.11%K -21.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 20:19
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -9.86%E -7.14%K -25.95%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -4.63%E -1.68%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-20 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%8.1%2026-10-21 07:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-10-20 11:30
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-10-20 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-10-20 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-10-20 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-10-20 11:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-10-20 11:35
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%8.2%2026-10-20 11:55
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.01%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.36%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.63%8.9%2026-10-21 14:40
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%12.6%2026-10-21 07:55