The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hermes v JoKP

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hermes (Local)

Prediction 50.20%1.99fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.15%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%50.14%50.20%50.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.861.851.9154.95%53.71%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JoKP (Visit)

Prediction 49.80%2.01fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -5.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.06%49.86%49.80%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.841.9055.56%54.35%54.35%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hermes (Local): 50.20%; JoKP (Visit): 49.80%. For Hermes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -4.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -10.37%E -5.76%K -12.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-30 20:40
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -4.11%E -2.15%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -10.37%E -5.76%K -12.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-30 20:40
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -4.61%E -2.43%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -8.38%E -4.55%K -9.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:00
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -4.61%E -2.43%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -8.38%E -4.55%K -9.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.88%E -4.26%K -9.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 12:04
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.88%E -4.26%K -9.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 12:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.12%E -3.85%K -8.38%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.88%E -4.26%K -9.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 12:05
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -8.13%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -5.39%E -2.84%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 14:40
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.13%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-02 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.13%E -4.44%K -9.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.87%E -4.85%K -10.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-02 12:05
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -8.63%E -4.74%K -10.52%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.59%EV -7.88%E -4.26%K -9.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 10:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.06%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.06%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.88%7.6%2026-10-02 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-02 10:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-02 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-02 10:50
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-02 10:50
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-02 10:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-02 10:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%8.6%2026-10-02 10:50
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.80%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%9.7%2026-10-02 14:49