The School of Odds
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TPS v Sport

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS (Local)

Prediction 83.54%1.20fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -3.42%
Kelly -26.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.44%83.48%83.51%84.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.131.121.1590.91%88.77%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport (Visit)

Prediction 16.46%6.07fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.245%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.49%16.52%16.49%17.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.795.846.0018.52%17.26%17.12%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TPS (Local): 83.54%; Sport (Visit): 16.46%. For Sport (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.00, with an expected value of -1.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -3.93%E -3.42%K -26.21%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -6.16%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-11 12:55
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -3.93%E -3.42%K -26.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -11.10%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-11 16:05
Bally Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -3.93%E -3.42%K -26.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -11.10%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-11 16:05
betPARX🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -3.93%E -3.42%K -26.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -11.10%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-11 16:05
Betsson🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.77%E -4.18%K -34.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.34%E -0.929%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 11:25
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.77%E -4.18%K -34.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.34%E -0.929%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-11 11:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.77%E -4.18%K -34.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.46%E -1.72%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 11:25
theScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.60%E -4.96%K -43.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.34%E -0.929%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 11:25
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.44%E -5.75%K -53.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-11 11:35
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.44%E -5.75%K -53.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-11 11:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.44%E -5.75%K -53.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-11 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.44%E -5.75%K -53.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-11 11:25
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.91%EV -6.44%E -5.75%K -53.65%G +0.000%5.84I 17.12%NM 16.09%EV -3.86%E -0.661%K -0.797%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-11 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.11%E -7.37%K -81.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.11%E -7.37%K -81.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 13:00
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.11%E -7.37%K -81.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 13:00
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.11%E -7.37%K -81.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -1.22%E -0.204%K -0.245%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 13:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%2.9%2026-03-11 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%6.2%2026-03-11 16:20
Smarkets◎1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%7.8%2026-03-11 12:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.44%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.42%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.14%3.0%2026-03-11 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.44%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.42%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.14%3.0%2026-03-11 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 76.44%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.42%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.14%3.0%2026-03-11 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.93%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.19%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.88%3.3%2026-03-11 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%5.4%2026-03-11 11:25
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%5.7%2026-03-11 16:05
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%5.7%2026-03-11 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%5.7%2026-03-11 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.27%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%5.7%2026-03-11 16:05
1xBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.55%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.06%6.3%2026-03-11 15:40
LeoVegas🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.34%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.21%9.2%2026-03-11 15:40
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.69%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%9.7%2026-03-11 11:25
Everygame🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.81%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%11.1%2026-03-11 12:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.76%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%11.1%2026-03-11 11:25
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%11.8%2026-03-11 11:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.55%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.02%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.43%14.9%2026-03-11 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 72.64%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.92%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.44%15.7%2026-03-11 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 71.84%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.40%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.76%17.0%2026-03-11 16:06