The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TPS v Jukurit

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS (Local)

Prediction 69.64%1.44fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.38%69.47%69.93%70.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.371.351.4274.63%73.21%74.07%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jukurit (Visit)

Prediction 30.36%3.29fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.406%
Kelly -0.586%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.53%30.07%32.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.032.903.2535.09%32.96%34.48%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TPS (Local): 69.64%; Jukurit (Visit): 30.36%. For TPS (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.42, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -1.12%E -0.786%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -8.91%E -2.97%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-15 15:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.51%E -1.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.51%E -1.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 13:45
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.51%E -1.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 13:45
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.90%E -2.83%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.35%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-15 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -3.90%E -2.83%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -13.46%E -4.72%K -7.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 15:25
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.60%E -3.36%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -2.84%E -0.886%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-15 15:25
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.29%E -3.89%K -14.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -12.55%E -4.36%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:19
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.99%E -4.44%K -17.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.84%E -0.886%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 15:26
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.99%E -4.44%K -17.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 22:05
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.99%E -4.44%K -17.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 22:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.99%E -4.44%K -17.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 22:05
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.99%E -4.44%K -17.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -11.95%E -4.12%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 22:10
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.69%E -4.99%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.32%E -0.406%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 12:35
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.69%E -4.99%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.32%E -0.406%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 15:26
Bally Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.69%E -4.99%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.32%E -0.406%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 12:35
betPARX🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.69%E -4.99%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.32%E -0.406%K -0.586%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 12:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 67.46%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.54%8.2%2026-09-15 15:26

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.38%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-09-15 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.38%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-09-15 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.38%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%3.2%2026-09-15 12:40
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%6.1%2026-09-15 12:40
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%6.1%2026-09-15 12:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%6.1%2026-09-15 12:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%6.1%2026-09-15 12:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.13%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%6.1%2026-09-15 15:25
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.18%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.37%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%6.3%2026-09-15 15:25
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%8.4%2026-09-15 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.54%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.90%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%10.5%2026-09-15 15:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.43%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.11%12.8%2026-09-15 15:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.10%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%12.8%2026-09-15 12:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.42%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.69%13.9%2026-09-15 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.81%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.96%16.4%2026-09-15 15:25