The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TPS v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS (Local)

Prediction 39.74%2.52fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -0.979%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.31%39.76%39.40%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.332.4845.45%42.88%43.01%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 60.26%1.66fair odd
EV -0.569%
Edge -0.345%
Kelly -0.875%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%60.24%60.60%61.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.591.581.6564.94%63.03%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TPS (Local): 39.74%; Ilves (Visit): 60.26%. For Ilves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -0.569%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -1.45%E -0.584%K -0.979%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -7.20%E -4.67%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:00
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -1.45%E -0.584%K -0.979%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -7.20%E -4.67%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:00
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.64%E -1.08%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.39%E -3.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 14:39
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.64%E -1.08%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.99%E -3.84%K -10.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 14:55
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.42%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.39%E -3.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 11:00
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.42%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.39%E -3.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 11:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.42%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.39%E -3.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 10:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.42%E -2.28%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.39%E -3.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 11:00
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -6.61%E -2.81%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -0.569%E -0.345%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 10:59
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.60%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.38%E -1.47%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 11:00
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.60%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.38%E -1.47%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 10:59
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.60%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.38%E -1.47%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 11:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.60%E -3.74%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.18%E -2.63%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 03:57
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.59%E -4.71%K -8.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.39%E -3.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 23:42
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -12.58%E -5.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -3.58%E -2.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 08:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -12.58%E -5.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -3.58%E -2.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 08:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -12.58%E -5.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -3.58%E -2.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 08:14
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -12.58%E -5.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -3.58%E -2.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 08:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%5.9%2026-03-07 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%5.9%2026-03-07 14:54
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%7.6%2026-03-07 14:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.23%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.37%2.8%2026-03-07 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.23%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.37%2.8%2026-03-07 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.23%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.37%2.8%2026-03-07 11:00
Coolbet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.24%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.79%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.97%3.0%2026-03-07 10:56
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%5.2%2026-03-07 10:59
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.1%2026-03-07 10:59
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.1%2026-03-07 11:00
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.1%2026-03-07 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.1%2026-03-07 11:00
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.11%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%6.3%2026-03-07 14:00
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%7.5%2026-03-07 11:00
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%9.3%2026-03-07 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%11.0%2026-03-07 11:00
Everygame🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%11.3%2026-03-07 12:54
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%15.0%2026-03-07 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.31%1.84I 54.35%NM 46.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%15.8%2026-03-07 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.70%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.74%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.56%16.9%2026-03-07 14:49