The School of Odds
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Tappara v SaiPa

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 55.92%1.79fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.42%56.05%56.06%57.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.681.7463.69%60.16%59.52%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 22.48%4.45fair odd
EV +3.40%
Edge +0.738%
Kelly +0.943%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.10%22.36%22.32%23.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.054.104.6027.40%24.69%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.61%4.63fair odd
EV -0.612%
Edge -0.133%
Kelly -0.170%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.88%21.60%21.62%22.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.354.404.6026.32%23.00%22.73%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 55.92%; SaiPa (Visit): 22.48%; Draw: 21.61%. For SaiPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.40%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.09%EV -4.94%E -2.91%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%EV +3.40%E +0.738%K +0.943%G +0.032%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.81%EV -3.85%E -0.866%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-26 09:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.27%EV -6.06%E -3.61%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.24%EV -4.47%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -4.93%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 13:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.79%EV -2.71%E -1.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%EV -0.612%E -0.133%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-26 09:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.79%EV -2.71%E -1.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%EV -0.612%E -0.133%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-26 09:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.79%EV -2.71%E -1.55%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.10%EV -0.612%E -0.133%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-26 09:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.08%EV -6.06%E -3.61%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -2.77%E -0.616%K -0.792%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 09:40
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.08%EV -6.06%E -3.61%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -2.77%E -0.616%K -0.792%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 09:40
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.08%EV -6.06%E -3.61%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -2.77%E -0.616%K -0.792%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 09:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.08%EV -6.06%E -3.61%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -2.77%E -0.616%K -0.792%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 09:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.71%EV -9.42%E -5.81%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -4.93%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-26 12:00
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.06%EV -4.38%E -2.56%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -4.93%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-26 13:15
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -6.62%E -3.96%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -8.17%E -1.92%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 13:10
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -9.42%E -5.81%K -15.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -9.25%E -2.20%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-26 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -9.42%E -5.81%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -12.34%E -3.16%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -7.09%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -10.53%E -6.58%K -17.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -13.46%E -3.50%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.01%EV -8.17%E -1.92%K -2.51%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-26 09:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.92%EV -9.97%E -6.20%K -16.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -13.46%E -3.50%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -13.58%E -3.39%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-26 13:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.42%EV -12.21%E -7.78%K -21.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%EV -16.83%E -4.55%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.49%EV -17.90%E -4.71%K -6.39%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-26 13:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.71%EV -11.65%E -7.37%K -20.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.68%EV -17.96%E -4.92%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.61%EV -13.58%E -3.39%K -4.53%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-26 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%3.8%2026-09-26 13:10
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%4.1%2026-09-26 13:15
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%4.2%2026-09-26 12:35
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%5.1%2026-09-26 13:20
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%5.1%2026-09-26 09:40
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%5.1%2026-09-26 09:40
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%5.1%2026-09-26 09:40
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%5.2%2026-09-26 13:15
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-09-25 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-09-25 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-09-25 21:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-09-26 09:20
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-25 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-25 17:25
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-25 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-09-25 17:25
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%8.4%2026-09-26 13:10