The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tappara v Lukko

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 63.80%1.57fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.25%63.82%63.83%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.481.5469.44%67.68%67.57%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 36.20%2.76fair odd
EV -0.459%
Edge -0.167%
Kelly -0.262%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.18%36.17%37.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.642.602.7540.00%37.95%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 63.80%; Lukko (Visit): 36.20%. For Lukko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -0.459%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -1.74%E -1.13%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -8.06%E -3.17%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-16 15:10
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.38%E -1.56%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 15:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -3.66%E -2.42%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -9.51%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 15:10
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 19:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 19:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.30%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-14 19:09
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -4.93%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -1.91%E -0.704%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-16 15:20
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.27%E -0.840%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-16 15:20
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -3.72%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 15:25
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.459%E -0.167%K -0.262%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 09:45
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.459%E -0.167%K -0.262%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 09:45
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.49%E -5.16%K -16.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.459%E -0.167%K -0.262%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 09:44
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 11:34
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 11:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%7.0%2026-10-16 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 65.04%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.96%7.5%2026-10-16 15:25
Smarkets◎1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%7.6%2026-10-16 15:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%2.9%2026-10-16 09:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%2.9%2026-10-16 09:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%2.9%2026-10-16 09:25
Coolbet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.91%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.86%2.9%2026-10-16 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%5.6%2026-10-16 15:10
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-10-16 09:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-10-16 09:44
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-10-16 09:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-10-16 09:45
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.84%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.03%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-10-16 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%8.7%2026-10-16 15:15
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%9.1%2026-10-15 23:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%11.0%2026-10-16 15:10
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%11.6%2026-10-16 15:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%13.0%2026-10-16 15:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.25%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%15.7%2026-10-16 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.33%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.62%19.3%2026-10-16 15:15