The School of Odds
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Tappara v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 65.48%1.53fair odd
EV +0.837%
Edge +0.543%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.25%65.06%65.79%66.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.461.441.5469.93%68.49%69.44%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 34.52%2.90fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.566%
Kelly -0.872%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.72%34.94%34.21%37.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.752.8540.00%37.32%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 65.48%; Kärpät (Visit): 34.52%. For Tappara (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.837%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV +0.837%E +0.543%K +1.55%G +0.013%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -12.31%E -4.85%K -8.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-22 09:59
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.78%E -1.19%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -6.79%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-22 09:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.09%E -2.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.24%E -3.94%K -6.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-22 09:59
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.09%E -2.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 07:34
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.09%E -2.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 07:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.09%E -2.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 07:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.09%E -2.09%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -13.70%E -5.48%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 07:39
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -5.06%E -3.49%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -1.61%E -0.566%K -0.872%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-22 14:44
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.71%E -3.97%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.34%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 15:19
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.96%EV -5.71%E -3.97%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%EV -3.68%E -1.32%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 14:59
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.71%E -3.97%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 09:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.71%E -3.97%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 09:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.71%E -3.97%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 09:29
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.71%E -3.97%K -12.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.55%E -3.65%K -5.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-21 01:19
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.37%E -4.45%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.34%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 11:19
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.37%E -4.45%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.34%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 11:19
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.37%E -4.45%K -14.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.34%E -1.19%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86%1.0%2026-09-22 15:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86%1.0%2026-09-22 15:24
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34%8.3%2026-09-22 09:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60%2.9%2026-09-22 11:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-09-22 14:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00%3.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.67%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%5.5%2026-09-22 09:59
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.48%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.37%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.15%6.2%2026-09-22 15:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.36%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%9.0%2026-09-22 10:04
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%10.1%2026-09-22 09:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.41%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%10.9%2026-09-22 09:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.45%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.36%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%12.7%2026-09-22 14:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.15%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.87%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.98%13.0%2026-09-22 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.49%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.61%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.90%15.6%2026-09-22 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.25%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%16.8%2026-09-22 15:19