The School of Odds
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Tappara v KalPa

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 75.59%1.32fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -11.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.95%75.87%75.56%77.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.241.251.2881.97%80.53%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KalPa (Visit)

Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV +4.96%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.075%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.10%24.13%24.44%25.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.933.864.3026.67%25.45%25.91%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 75.59%; KalPa (Visit): 24.41%. For KalPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.96%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +4.96%E +1.15%K +1.50%G +0.075%5.2%2026-03-07 11:00
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +4.96%E +1.15%K +1.50%G +0.075%5.2%2026-03-07 11:00
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +2.52%E +0.601%K +0.789%G +0.020%5.8%2026-03-07 11:39
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 16:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 16:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -2.36%E -0.590%K -0.786%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 10:59
theScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.76%E -3.78%K -18.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -4.80%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 11:39
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.05%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.46%EV -5.78%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 11:09
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -3.25%E -2.54%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 06:59
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.00%E -3.15%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 11:20
Bally Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.00%E -3.15%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 11:19
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.00%E -3.15%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 11:20
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 08:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 08:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 08:14
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.78%E -6.38%K -35.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 08:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%6.4%2026-03-07 16:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%6.4%2026-03-07 16:19
Smarkets◎1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%7.9%2026-03-07 11:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.51%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.86%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%3.1%2026-03-07 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.51%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.86%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%3.1%2026-03-07 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.51%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.86%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%3.1%2026-03-07 11:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.81%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.58%5.3%2026-03-07 10:59
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.73%5.82I 17.18%NM 16.17%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%6.3%2026-03-07 15:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.57%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%6.7%2026-03-07 11:19
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.57%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%6.7%2026-03-07 11:20
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.57%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%6.7%2026-03-07 11:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.57%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%6.7%2026-03-07 11:19
Betway🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%8.6%2026-03-07 11:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.15%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.69%8.7%2026-03-07 16:14
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.42%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.96%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%9.2%2026-03-07 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.66%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.91%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.43%10.3%2026-03-07 11:00
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%11.6%2026-03-07 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%11.9%2026-03-07 10:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.32%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.80%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.89%15.1%2026-03-07 16:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.41%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.60%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.99%15.8%2026-03-07 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 64.60%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.24%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.16%17.3%2026-03-07 16:20