The School of Odds
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Tappara v Jokerit

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 59.31%1.69fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -4.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.18%59.35%59.14%61.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.551.551.6468.49%64.64%64.52%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jokerit (Visit)

Prediction 20.31%4.92fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.309%
Kelly +0.386%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.22%20.33%20.43%21.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.654.845.0025.64%21.52%20.66%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.38%4.91fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.41%20.32%20.43%21.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.594.704.8525.64%21.77%21.28%20.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 59.31%; Jokerit (Visit): 20.31%; Draw: 20.38%. For Jokerit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.92. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.48%EV -5.11%E -3.19%K -8.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +1.54%E +0.309%K +0.386%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16%EV -2.16%E -0.450%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-02 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.48%EV -5.11%E -3.19%K -8.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +1.54%E +0.309%K +0.386%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16%EV -2.16%E -0.450%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-02 12:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.48%EV -5.11%E -3.19%K -8.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +1.54%E +0.309%K +0.386%G +0.006%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.16%EV -2.16%E -0.450%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-02 12:01
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.26%EV -2.73%E -1.67%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.84%EV -0.488%E -0.100%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.90%EV -5.22%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-02 10:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%EV -8.07%E -5.21%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -0.488%E -0.100%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.20%E -0.894%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 12:01
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%EV -8.07%E -5.21%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -0.488%E -0.100%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.20%E -0.894%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 12:00
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%EV -8.07%E -5.21%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -0.488%E -0.100%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.20%E -0.894%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.75%EV -8.07%E -5.21%K -14.68%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -0.488%E -0.100%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.20%E -0.894%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 12:00
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.14%EV -8.67%E -5.63%K -16.05%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.45%EV -1.71%E -0.353%K -0.444%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.41%EV -1.14%E -0.235%K -0.297%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.66%EV -6.29%E -3.98%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -6.58%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.85%EV -3.18%E -0.670%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-02 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.47%EV -9.85%E -6.48%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -6.58%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -4.20%E -0.894%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-02 14:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.47%EV -12.82%E -8.72%K -27.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -6.58%E -1.43%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.20%EV -10.31%E -2.34%K -3.03%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 12:00
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.48%E -4.79%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.61%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.28%E -1.84%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-02 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.30%EV -9.85%E -6.48%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.85%EV -13.69%E -3.22%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.85%EV -13.37%E -3.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-02 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.09%EV -9.85%E -6.48%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -14.70%E -3.50%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.53%EV -6.24%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-02 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.17%EV -11.63%E -7.81%K -23.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%EV -18.77%E -4.69%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.16%EV -12.35%E -2.87%K -3.74%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-02 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 57.18%EV -13.41%E -9.18%K -29.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.41%EV -20.80%E -5.33%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.41%EV -20.51%E -5.26%K -7.07%G +0.000%19.8%2026-10-02 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.75%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.25%3.9%2026-10-02 12:49
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%4.2%2026-10-02 13:35
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%4.3%2026-10-02 14:25
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%5.4%2026-10-02 12:49
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-10-02 12:01
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-10-02 12:00
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-10-02 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-10-02 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-10-02 14:25
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-10-02 12:01
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.67%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.33%5.7%2026-10-02 14:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%7.4%2026-10-02 14:25
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%8.2%2026-10-02 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-10-02 09:45
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-10-02 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-10-02 09:50
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%8.5%2026-10-02 09:45
Smarkets◎1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%8.5%2026-10-02 14:25