The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tappara v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 50.66%1.97fair odd
EV +0.297%
Edge +0.150%
Kelly +0.303%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%50.71%50.66%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.831.9855.56%53.89%54.64%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 49.34%2.03fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.29%49.34%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.921.922.0054.05%52.17%52.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 50.66%; Ilves (Visit): 49.34%. For Tappara (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.297%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV +0.297%E +0.150%K +0.303%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 09:30
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.22%E -0.627%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.72%E -4.13%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 15:00
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.76%E -1.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -5.26%E -2.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-21 15:15
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.77%E -2.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.76%E -2.47%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 22:35
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.77%E -2.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.26%E -2.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 10:40
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.77%E -2.54%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.26%E -2.74%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 10:39
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.28%E -2.82%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.78%E -1.94%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-21 12:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.75%E -3.01%K -6.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 12:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-21 06:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-21 06:15
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-21 06:15
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.30%E -3.99%K -8.80%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.71%E -4.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-21 06:15
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.31%E -0.655%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 10:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.31%E -0.655%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 10:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.31%E -0.655%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 10:10
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.82%E -4.90%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.31%E -0.655%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-21 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%2.1%2026-04-21 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%2.1%2026-04-21 14:55
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%3.1%2026-04-21 15:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.71%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.35%2.6%2026-04-21 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.99%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.41%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.60%2.8%2026-04-21 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.99%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.41%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.60%2.8%2026-04-21 10:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.99%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.41%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.60%2.8%2026-04-21 10:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%5.7%2026-04-21 12:55
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%5.8%2026-04-21 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%5.8%2026-04-21 10:25
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%5.8%2026-04-21 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%5.8%2026-04-21 10:25
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%6.6%2026-04-21 15:15
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%8.3%2026-04-21 12:55
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%9.8%2026-04-21 10:25
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.85%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%10.8%2026-04-21 15:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.13%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.37%11.1%2026-04-21 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%12.3%2026-04-21 10:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%12.5%2026-04-21 15:20
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%12.9%2026-04-21 12:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.59%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.28%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.13%14.2%2026-04-21 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.07%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.37%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.55%16.3%2026-04-21 12:55