The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tappara v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 77.38%1.29fair odd
EV -0.953%
Edge -0.745%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.23%77.27%77.80%79.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.241.251.2882.64%80.65%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 22.62%4.42fair odd
EV +4.05%
Edge +0.880%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.83%22.73%22.20%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.973.924.6027.78%25.19%25.48%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 77.38%; HPK (Visit): 22.62%. For HPK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.05%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -6.37%E -5.26%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +4.05%E +0.880%K +1.12%G +0.046%4.4%2026-04-07 14:10
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.82%E -3.92%K -20.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -0.474%E -0.108%K -0.139%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-07 09:40
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.82%E -3.92%K -20.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -0.474%E -0.108%K -0.139%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-07 09:39
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.80%EV -6.37%E -5.26%K -30.33%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.20%EV -4.09%E -0.965%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-07 14:40
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.52%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 11:20
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.52%E -2.38%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 11:59
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -0.953%E -0.745%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -12.91%E -3.35%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-07 10:00
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.60%E -4.59%K -25.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.18%E -4.05%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-07 11:20
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -18.57%E -5.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-07 09:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -18.57%E -5.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-07 09:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -18.57%E -5.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-07 09:40
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -3.27%E -2.62%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -18.57%E -5.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-07 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%4.4%2026-04-07 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%4.4%2026-04-07 15:15
Smarkets◎1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%7.0%2026-04-07 15:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.92%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.67%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.41%3.1%2026-04-07 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.57%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.86%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.57%3.5%2026-04-07 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.20%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%6.3%2026-04-07 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.20%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%6.3%2026-04-07 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.20%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%6.3%2026-04-07 14:10
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.20%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.75%6.3%2026-04-07 14:10
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.16%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.25%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.58%6.3%2026-04-07 15:15
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.64%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%8.8%2026-04-07 15:14
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.13%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.97%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.90%9.5%2026-04-07 14:10
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.63%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.48%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%10.5%2026-04-07 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.92%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.03%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%10.8%2026-04-07 15:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.39%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%12.4%2026-04-07 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.56%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.64%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.79%15.7%2026-04-07 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 62.46%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.64%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.90%16.9%2026-04-07 15:10