The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Tappara v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tappara (Local)

Prediction 71.86%1.39fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -6.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.33%72.24%71.07%75.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.301.291.3678.74%76.73%77.22%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd
EV +11.16%
Edge +2.82%
Kelly +3.78%
Growth +0.422%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.33%27.76%28.93%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.453.353.9531.25%29.00%29.85%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tappara (Local): 71.86%; HPK (Visit): 28.14%. For HPK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.16%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -8.74%E -6.88%K -32.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +11.16%E +2.82%K +3.78%G +0.422%4.1%2026-03-27 22:10
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -8.74%E -6.88%K -32.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +11.16%E +2.82%K +3.78%G +0.422%4.1%2026-03-27 22:10
BetRivers🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -8.02%E -6.27%K -28.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV +6.93%E +1.82%K +2.48%G +0.172%4.4%2026-03-28 01:05
Bally Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -8.74%E -6.88%K -32.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +5.53%E +1.47%K +2.01%G +0.111%5.4%2026-03-28 01:05
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -8.74%E -6.88%K -32.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +5.53%E +1.47%K +2.01%G +0.111%5.4%2026-03-28 01:04
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.30%E -5.66%K -25.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 09:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.30%E -5.66%K -25.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 09:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -8.02%E -6.27%K -28.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 09:09
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -8.02%E -6.27%K -28.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 09:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-27 18:05
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-27 19:00
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-27 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-27 18:05
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -2.27%E -1.67%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -8.54%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-27 03:30
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.86%EV -5.15%E -3.90%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.14%EV -9.67%E -3.01%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 21:45
theScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -2.99%E -2.21%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-27 19:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -5.86%E -4.48%K -18.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-27 18:39
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-27 18:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%8.6%2026-03-28 03:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 77.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 22.39%27.6%2026-03-28 01:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 77.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 22.39%27.6%2026-03-28 01:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.89%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.66%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.45%3.0%2026-03-27 01:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.64%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.32%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.04%3.0%2026-03-28 01:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.64%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.32%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.04%3.0%2026-03-28 01:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.64%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.32%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.04%3.0%2026-03-28 01:05
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.13%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.25%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%6.2%2026-03-27 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%6.3%2026-03-28 01:05
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%6.3%2026-03-28 01:05
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%6.3%2026-03-28 01:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%6.3%2026-03-28 01:05
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%9.8%2026-03-28 01:05
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.64%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%9.9%2026-03-27 23:10
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.03%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%11.1%2026-03-27 21:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%11.1%2026-03-27 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.69%15.1%2026-03-27 19:33
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 59.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.60%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.12%15.6%2026-03-27 19:30