The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sport v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport (Local)

Prediction 43.84%2.28fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%44.04%43.83%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.202.2047.62%45.91%45.45%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 56.16%1.78fair odd
EV -0.588%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.764%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%55.96%56.17%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.671.671.7762.11%59.70%59.70%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 43.84%; TPS (Visit): 56.16%. For TPS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.77, with an expected value of -0.588%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.96%E -2.31%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-09 13:21
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.52%E -2.66%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-09 15:10
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.20%E -3.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 13:20
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.20%E -3.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 13:20
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.20%E -3.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 13:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.01%E -5.56%K -14.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 06:25
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.01%E -5.56%K -14.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 06:25
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.57%E -5.95%K -15.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-08 06:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.56%E -1.62%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.57%E -5.95%K -15.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-08 06:25
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.44%E -2.04%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.64%E -3.36%K -8.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 14:10
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.88%E -2.25%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.52%E -2.66%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 15:15
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.75%E -2.68%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.52%E -2.66%K -6.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.75%E -2.68%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.52%E -2.66%K -6.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.75%E -2.68%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.52%E -2.66%K -6.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 14:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.75%E -2.68%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.20%E -3.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 13:10
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.95%E -3.78%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -0.588%E -0.332%K -0.764%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%8.2%2026-09-09 13:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%2.9%2026-09-09 13:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%2.9%2026-09-09 13:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.97%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%2.9%2026-09-09 13:20
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.20%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.95%3.1%2026-09-09 09:39
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.71%6.1%2026-09-09 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%6.3%2026-09-09 13:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%6.3%2026-09-09 13:20
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%6.3%2026-09-09 13:20
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%6.3%2026-09-09 13:15
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%9.4%2026-09-09 13:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.92%10.5%2026-09-09 13:20
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%12.4%2026-09-09 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.18%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.11%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%12.5%2026-09-09 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.27%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.45%12.7%2026-09-09 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.82%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.23%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%12.8%2026-09-09 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.16%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.54%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.30%16.0%2026-09-09 13:20