The School of Odds
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Sport v SaiPa

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport (Local)

Prediction 45.22%2.21fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.42%45.30%45.05%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.152.1548.78%47.08%46.51%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 54.78%1.83fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.70%54.95%56.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.701.8060.61%58.62%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 45.22%; SaiPa (Visit): 54.78%. For SaiPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.87%E -4.04%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:14
Bally Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.87%E -4.04%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:14
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.87%E -4.04%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:14
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.87%E -4.04%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.87%E -4.04%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.87%E -4.04%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:14
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.61%E -5.82%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 05:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.61%E -5.82%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 05:04
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.61%E -5.82%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 05:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -2.78%E -1.29%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.61%E -5.82%K -14.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 05:05
NordicBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.23%E -1.51%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.68%E -2.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 09:40
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.14%E -1.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.78%E -3.36%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:40
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.04%E -2.40%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.68%E -2.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.04%E -2.40%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.52%E -5.10%K -12.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 12:40
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.39%E -0.774%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 13:00
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -1.94%E -1.08%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-24 13:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.30%E -3.56%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.68%E -2.69%K -6.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77%1.4%2026-10-24 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77%1.4%2026-10-24 13:55
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 45.55%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.45%8.7%2026-10-24 13:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-10-24 11:31
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-10-24 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-10-24 11:31
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.34%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.96%3.1%2026-10-24 06:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.77%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%5.8%2026-10-24 13:09
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-10-24 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-10-24 11:30
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-10-24 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-10-24 11:30
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.73%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.02%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.24%6.2%2026-10-24 13:10
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%8.5%2026-10-24 13:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%9.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.90%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%11.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%12.8%2026-10-24 13:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.20%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.09%16.9%2026-10-24 13:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.73%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%17.0%2026-10-24 13:10