The School of Odds
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Sport v Kiekko-Espoo

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport (Local)

Prediction 43.32%2.31fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.541%
Kelly -0.964%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%43.44%43.30%45.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.202.202.2847.17%45.48%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 56.68%1.76fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.789%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.92%56.56%56.70%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.651.7462.50%60.33%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 43.32%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 56.68%. For Sport (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.28, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -1.23%E -0.541%K -0.964%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -5.91%E -3.56%K -8.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-23 14:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.53%E -1.13%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.48%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-23 14:35
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -2.97%E -1.32%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.77%E -2.84%K -7.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-23 12:39
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.40%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.48%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-23 05:15
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.40%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.48%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-23 05:10
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.40%E -1.52%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.48%E -3.92%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-23 05:10
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.07%E -1.80%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-23 14:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.18%E -5.05%K -13.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-23 12:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:39
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:39
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.70%E -2.14%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.31%E -5.82%K -15.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 07:39
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.87%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.87%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.87%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.64%E -2.14%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 14:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.87%E -3.19%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-23 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -8.17%E -3.85%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -1.37%E -0.789%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-23 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36%1.4%2026-09-23 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%6.2%2026-09-23 15:20
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%8.2%2026-09-23 14:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.26%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%2.8%2026-09-23 14:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.21%3.3%2026-09-23 07:44
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.21%3.3%2026-09-23 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.21%3.3%2026-09-23 07:45
1xBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.49%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-09-23 15:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-23 07:45
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-23 07:44
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-23 07:45
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-23 07:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%9.0%2026-09-23 14:25
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%9.4%2026-09-23 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.92%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.92%10.5%2026-09-23 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.79%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.24%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%12.8%2026-09-23 07:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.37%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.75%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.88%13.2%2026-09-23 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.59%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%15.8%2026-09-23 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.27%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.09%16.9%2026-09-23 15:15