The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sport v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport (Local)

Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.388%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.44%24.48%24.30%25.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.904.0527.78%25.92%25.64%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 75.60%1.32fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -8.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.15%75.52%75.70%76.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.251.2981.97%80.19%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 24.40%; Kärpät (Visit): 75.60%. For Sport (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.05, with an expected value of -1.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -1.18%E -0.292%K -0.388%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 12:00
NordicBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -1.18%E -0.292%K -0.388%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 11:59
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.40%E -0.601%K -0.801%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.40%E -0.601%K -0.801%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 16:00
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.40%E -0.601%K -0.801%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 16:18
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.40%E -0.601%K -0.801%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -22.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 16:00
BetRivers🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -4.84%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 10:50
betPARX🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -4.84%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 10:50
Bally Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -4.84%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.74%E -3.76%K -18.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 10:49
Pinnacle🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.17%EV -5.09%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.83%EV -6.25%E -5.04%K -26.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 14:15
theScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -7.28%E -1.92%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -3.23%E -2.52%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-17 12:09
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -9.72%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -2.47%E -1.92%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-17 16:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.72%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 15:00
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.72%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 15:00
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.72%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 15:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.72%E -2.63%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.77%E -6.37%K -35.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 15:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.16%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.50%E -4.40%K -22.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-17 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07%1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93%1.3%2026-03-17 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47%1.9%2026-03-17 14:39
Smarkets◎3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%5.7%2026-03-17 16:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.90%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.09%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%3.1%2026-03-17 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.90%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.09%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%3.1%2026-03-17 10:50
ATG (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.90%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.09%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%3.1%2026-03-17 10:50
Coolbet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.34%1.44I 69.44%NM 67.22%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.44%3.3%2026-03-17 12:00
Unibet (UK)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.50%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.10%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.40%4.5%2026-03-17 16:00
1xBet🎯6.01I 16.64%NM 15.66%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.75%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.59%6.3%2026-03-17 16:00
Casumo🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.35%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%7.0%2026-03-17 10:50
Unibet (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.35%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%7.0%2026-03-17 10:49
Grosvenor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.35%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%7.0%2026-03-17 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.35%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%7.0%2026-03-17 10:50
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%8.7%2026-03-17 16:00
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%8.8%2026-03-17 15:45
LeoVegas🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.75%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.23%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.03%9.5%2026-03-17 10:49
Winamax (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.39%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.15%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.46%10.6%2026-03-17 16:00
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%11.8%2026-03-17 15:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.40%1.38I 72.46%NM 63.05%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.55%14.9%2026-03-17 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.03%1.37I 72.99%NM 63.16%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.81%15.6%2026-03-17 16:00
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 17.64%1.37I 72.99%NM 62.46%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.90%16.9%2026-03-17 16:03