The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sport v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport (Local)

Prediction 43.47%2.30fair odd
EV +3.01%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.45%43.20%43.77%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.202.152.3746.73%45.47%46.51%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 56.53%1.77fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.937%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.15%56.80%56.23%59.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.651.7462.50%60.04%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 43.47%; Kärpät (Visit): 56.53%. For Sport (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.37, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.01%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV +3.01%E +1.27%K +2.20%G +0.066%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -8.98%E -5.58%K -14.72%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 13:35
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +2.14%E +0.913%K +1.59%G +0.034%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-26 13:35
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.20%E -0.979%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 09:24
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.20%E -0.979%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 09:25
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.20%E -0.979%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.28%E -4.44%K -11.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 09:25
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.37%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.33%E -1.95%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 13:30
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.24%E -2.41%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.89%E -2.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-26 13:50
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.89%E -2.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 13:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.89%E -2.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 13:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.89%E -2.29%K -5.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 13:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 06:59
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 06:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 07:00
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.72%E -4.07%K -10.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-25 07:00
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -6.98%E -3.26%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.63%E -0.937%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-09-26 13:31

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.44%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-09-26 09:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%3.2%2026-09-26 09:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%3.2%2026-09-26 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%3.2%2026-09-26 09:34
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.71%6.1%2026-09-26 13:32
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%6.8%2026-09-26 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%6.8%2026-09-26 09:35
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%6.8%2026-09-26 09:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%6.8%2026-09-26 09:34
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%9.0%2026-09-26 13:35
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%10.5%2026-09-26 13:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.56%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.67%11.7%2026-09-26 13:31
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.71%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.15%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%12.3%2026-09-26 09:35
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%12.4%2026-09-26 13:26
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.69%13.2%2026-09-26 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.69%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.20%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.10%15.4%2026-09-26 13:31
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.31%1.95I 51.28%NM 43.91%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.78%16.8%2026-09-26 13:31