The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Sport v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport (Local)

Prediction 35.74%2.80fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.752%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.29%35.90%35.84%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.622.632.7440.00%38.19%38.10%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 64.26%1.56fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%64.10%64.16%65.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.471.481.5369.93%67.86%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 35.74%; Ilves (Visit): 64.26%. For Ilves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -2.06%E -0.752%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -8.11%E -5.67%K -18.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 13:30
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.49%E -1.29%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.26%E -2.86%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-05 13:20
NordicBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -4.56%E -1.71%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -3.62%E -2.41%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-05 13:25
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.90%E -3.31%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 13:25
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.90%E -3.31%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 08:54
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.90%E -3.31%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 08:55
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.28%E -1.99%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.90%E -3.31%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 08:59
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.47%E -5.19%K -16.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.47%E -5.19%K -16.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 16:30
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.47%E -5.19%K -16.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.07%E -2.72%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.47%E -5.19%K -16.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-04 16:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.85%E -3.47%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.62%E -2.41%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 18:10
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.69%E -1.10%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 18:10
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.64%E -4.26%K -7.09%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.62%E -2.41%K -7.23%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 18:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.18%10.2%2026-10-04 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 10:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.91%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.68%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.41%2.9%2026-10-04 15:19
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-10-05 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-10-05 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%3.4%2026-10-05 13:15
Casumo🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%6.2%2026-10-05 13:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%6.2%2026-10-05 13:15
Grosvenor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%6.2%2026-10-05 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%6.2%2026-10-05 13:15
1xBet🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 25.51%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.59%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.89%6.2%2026-10-05 13:24
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%8.7%2026-10-05 09:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 24.51%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.01%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%10.9%2026-10-04 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.60%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%11.0%2026-10-04 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.13%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%12.2%2026-10-05 13:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 27.39%1.68I 59.52%NM 49.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.89%19.7%2026-10-04 18:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 27.12%1.68I 59.52%NM 49.24%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.64%20.9%2026-10-04 18:10