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SaiPa v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 35.82%2.79fair odd
EV +3.87%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +2.04%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.47%35.47%35.82%36.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.572.602.9042.55%38.97%38.46%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 40.85%2.45fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%41.10%40.85%42.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.282.3547.62%44.44%43.86%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.33%4.29fair odd
EV +0.338%
Edge +0.079%
Kelly +0.102%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.80%23.43%23.33%24.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.094.154.3027.03%24.44%24.10%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 35.82%; Tappara (Visit): 40.85%; Draw: 23.33%. For SaiPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.87%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.47%EV +3.87%E +1.33%K +2.04%G +0.079%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -6.86%E -3.01%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.96%EV -5.50%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-14 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.01%EV -3.30%E -1.22%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.38%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.61%EV +0.338%E +0.079%K +0.102%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-14 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.01%EV -3.30%E -1.22%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.38%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.61%EV +0.338%E +0.079%K +0.102%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-14 12:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.01%EV -3.30%E -1.22%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.38%EV -4.00%E -1.70%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.61%EV +0.338%E +0.079%K +0.102%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-14 12:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV +0.338%E +0.079%K +0.102%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.24%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.86%E -3.01%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.00%E -0.475%K -0.624%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 11:35
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.24%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.86%E -3.01%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.00%E -0.475%K -0.624%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 11:35
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.24%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.86%E -3.01%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.00%E -0.475%K -0.624%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.24%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.33%EV -6.86%E -3.01%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.00%E -0.475%K -0.624%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 11:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -6.88%E -2.65%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -13.66%E -3.69%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 14:00
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.91%EV -9.03%E -3.55%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.29%EV -7.27%E -3.20%K -5.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV +0.338%E +0.079%K +0.102%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 14:45
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -10.46%E -4.18%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.05%EV -8.91%E -3.99%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -4.33%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-14 12:55
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -10.46%E -4.18%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.61%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -6.66%E -1.67%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.46%E -4.18%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.13%E -4.61%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31%EV -10.16%E -2.64%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-14 11:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.54%EV -12.25%E -5.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -12.17%E -5.66%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -4.33%E -1.06%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-14 13:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.50%EV -14.04%E -5.85%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -12.17%E -5.66%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.75%EV -10.16%E -2.64%K -3.57%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-14 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.85%EV -15.83%E -6.74%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.23%EV -14.22%E -6.77%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.92%EV -7.83%E -1.98%K -2.65%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-14 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%EV -15.83%E -6.74%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.76%EV -14.22%E -6.77%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -12.50%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-14 14:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%1.7%2026-03-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.45%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.55%3.2%2026-03-14 14:55
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%4.3%2026-03-14 13:55
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%4.6%2026-03-14 11:05
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.52%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%4.7%2026-03-14 11:30
Betsson🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-03-14 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-03-14 12:15
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%5.2%2026-03-14 12:54
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%5.2%2026-03-14 12:55
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%5.2%2026-03-14 12:55
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-14 11:15
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-14 11:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-14 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-03-14 11:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%6.8%2026-03-14 11:14
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-03-14 11:14
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%8.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-14 13:55
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%8.4%2026-03-14 13:55