The School of Odds
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SaiPa v Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 68.03%1.47fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -8.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.38%68.23%67.95%69.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.381.381.4274.07%72.38%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 31.97%3.13fair odd
EV +0.710%
Edge +0.226%
Kelly +0.330%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%31.77%32.05%32.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.983.003.1535.09%33.51%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 68.03%; Pelicans (Visit): 31.97%. For Pelicans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.710%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -7.48%E -5.50%K -20.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +0.710%E +0.226%K +0.330%G +0.002%5.3%2026-03-07 14:19
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -7.48%E -5.50%K -20.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +0.710%E +0.226%K +0.330%G +0.002%5.3%2026-03-07 14:20
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -7.48%E -5.50%K -20.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +0.710%E +0.226%K +0.330%G +0.002%5.3%2026-03-07 14:19
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.71%EV -6.12%E -4.44%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.29%EV -3.13%E -1.03%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-07 14:24
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.40%E -2.39%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-07 10:59
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.08%E -2.89%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 14:39
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.16%E -6.05%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 08:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.16%E -6.05%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 08:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.16%E -6.05%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 08:14
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.16%E -6.05%K -23.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 08:14
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.40%E -2.39%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.68%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 11:00
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.40%E -2.39%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.68%E -1.93%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 11:00
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.76%E -3.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 11:00
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.76%E -3.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 10:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.76%E -3.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 10:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.76%E -3.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.28%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.48%E -5.50%K -20.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -7.92%E -2.75%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 10:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -6.12%E -4.44%K -16.11%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -8.88%E -3.12%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 10:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%4.4%2026-03-07 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%6.2%2026-03-07 14:50
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39%8.0%2026-03-07 11:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%3.1%2026-03-07 10:56
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%3.3%2026-03-07 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%3.3%2026-03-07 14:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%3.3%2026-03-07 14:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%5.0%2026-03-07 10:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%6.1%2026-03-07 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%6.1%2026-03-07 14:19
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%6.1%2026-03-07 14:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%6.1%2026-03-07 14:19
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.67%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.19%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%6.3%2026-03-07 14:09
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%6.9%2026-03-07 11:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.63%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%8.6%2026-03-07 06:09
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.64%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.03%9.3%2026-03-07 14:20
Everygame🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%10.6%2026-03-07 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.00%10.8%2026-03-07 11:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.40%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.30%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.30%15.0%2026-03-07 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.59%15.8%2026-03-07 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.07%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.46%17.1%2026-03-07 14:49