The School of Odds
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SaiPa v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 56.61%1.77fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.857%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.15%56.58%56.66%60.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.641.651.7465.36%61.11%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 43.39%2.30fair odd
EV -0.213%
Edge -0.092%
Kelly -0.164%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.95%43.42%43.34%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.232.202.3046.73%44.91%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 56.61%; Kärpät (Visit): 43.39%. For Kärpät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.305. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.300, with an expected value of -0.213%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.49%E -0.857%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.15%E -3.34%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 14:35
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -2.62%E -1.53%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -7.15%E -3.34%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-20 15:20
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.19%E -1.87%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -4.99%E -2.28%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 13:20
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.89%E -2.91%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.42%E -2.49%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.45%E -3.27%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.45%E -3.27%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 12:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.45%E -3.27%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 12:40
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.59%E -3.99%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.38%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 13:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.59%E -3.99%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-20 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.15%E -4.36%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.38%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 13:40
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.15%E -4.36%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.38%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 13:40
Bally Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.15%E -4.36%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -2.38%E -1.06%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 13:40
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.28%E -5.11%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-20 13:14
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -13.38%E -8.75%K -25.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.213%E -0.092%K -0.164%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 06:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -13.38%E -8.75%K -25.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.213%E -0.092%K -0.164%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 06:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -13.38%E -8.75%K -25.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.213%E -0.092%K -0.164%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 06:05
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -13.38%E -8.75%K -25.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.213%E -0.092%K -0.164%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 06:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-10-20 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 54.88%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.12%6.6%2026-10-20 15:25
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%8.0%2026-10-20 13:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.74%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-10-20 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-10-20 13:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-10-20 13:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.06%3.2%2026-10-20 13:40
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.18%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.14%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%6.3%2026-10-20 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%6.4%2026-10-20 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%6.7%2026-10-20 13:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%6.7%2026-10-20 13:40
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%6.7%2026-10-20 13:40
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%6.7%2026-10-20 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%8.5%2026-10-20 12:45
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%8.9%2026-10-20 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.67%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%10.6%2026-10-20 13:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.03%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.76%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.21%13.2%2026-10-20 15:03
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.98%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%15.8%2026-10-20 13:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 44.38%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.97%19.2%2026-10-20 15:15