The School of Odds
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SaiPa v JYP

Kickoff: 2026-10-08 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 42.49%2.35fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.87%42.49%42.58%43.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.172.202.3251.02%46.03%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JYP (Visit)

Prediction 34.44%2.90fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.542%
Kelly +0.821%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.89%34.44%34.45%34.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.752.822.9541.67%36.35%35.46%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.07%4.34fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.743%
Kelly -0.975%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.08%23.07%22.97%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.913.934.2028.17%25.56%25.45%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 42.49%; JYP (Visit): 34.44%; Draw: 23.07%. For JYP (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.60%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.55%EV -3.12%E -1.37%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%EV +1.60%E +0.542%K +0.821%G +0.013%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV -8.89%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-05 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.55%EV -3.12%E -1.37%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%EV +1.60%E +0.542%K +0.821%G +0.013%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV -8.89%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-05 10:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.55%EV -3.12%E -1.37%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%EV +1.60%E +0.542%K +0.821%G +0.013%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV -8.89%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-05 10:10
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.52%E -2.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -1.84%E -0.647%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -11.19%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 10:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.52%E -2.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -1.84%E -0.647%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -11.19%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.52%E -2.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -1.84%E -0.647%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -11.19%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 10:11
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.52%E -2.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -1.84%E -0.647%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -11.19%E -2.91%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-05 10:10
Coolbet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.87%EV -1.42%E -0.611%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.44%EV -2.88%E -1.02%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -5.43%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-05 06:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.52%E -2.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.43%EV -5.29%E -1.92%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -3.12%E -0.743%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 08:40
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.98%EV -6.94%E -3.17%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.61%EV -6.32%E -2.32%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -3.12%E -0.743%K -0.975%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 09:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.50%EV -10.77%E -5.13%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.05%EV -7.01%E -2.60%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -15.81%E -4.33%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-05 10:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.58%EV -9.92%E -4.68%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.45%EV -9.77%E -3.73%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.97%EV -9.35%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-05 08:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.11%EV -10.77%E -5.13%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82%EV -10.45%E -4.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.08%EV -5.43%E -1.32%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 08:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 42.62%EV -16.71%E -8.53%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.81%EV -17.34%E -7.23%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.58%EV -14.65%E -3.96%K -5.43%G +0.000%19.7%2026-10-05 08:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 42.22%EV -16.71%E -8.53%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.48%EV -17.34%E -7.23%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.31%EV -18.11%E -5.10%K -7.10%G +0.000%20.9%2026-10-05 08:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%4.1%2026-10-05 14:19
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-05 14:20
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-05 08:54
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-05 08:54
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-10-05 08:55
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%6.3%2026-10-05 08:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%6.3%2026-10-05 06:45
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-05 06:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-05 11:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-05 11:01