The School of Odds
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SaiPa v Jokerit

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 50.70%1.97fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.05%50.78%50.75%51.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.831.871.9358.82%54.50%53.48%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jokerit (Visit)

Prediction 26.65%3.75fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.744%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.54%26.65%27.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.453.6533.33%29.36%28.99%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.65%4.41fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.338%
Kelly -0.439%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.63%22.67%22.60%23.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.144.254.3527.78%24.15%23.53%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 50.70%; Jokerit (Visit): 26.65%; Draw: 22.65%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.35, with an expected value of -1.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -2.16%E -1.12%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV -2.72%E -0.744%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -4.87%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-03 09:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.45%EV -2.66%E -1.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%EV -1.47%E -0.338%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-03 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.45%EV -2.66%E -1.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%EV -1.47%E -0.338%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-03 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.45%EV -2.66%E -1.39%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%EV -1.47%E -0.338%K -0.439%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-03 10:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.65%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%EV -3.73%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-03 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV -3.73%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 10:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV -3.73%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 10:04
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV -3.73%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 10:05
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -5.20%E -2.78%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV -3.73%E -0.879%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 10:05
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.86%EV -6.21%E -3.36%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.51%EV -8.85%E -2.59%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%EV -1.47%E -0.338%K -0.439%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -7.13%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-03 13:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.18%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -13.38%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -7.13%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-03 13:10
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.75%E -4.86%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-03 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.32%EV -10.27%E -5.80%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.38%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-03 10:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.10%EV -12.80%E -7.44%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.80%EV -17.38%E -5.61%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.10%EV -11.66%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-03 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.67%EV -13.31%E -7.78%K -18.74%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.39%EV -7.25%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.95%EV -12.80%E -3.32%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-03 13:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.05%EV -13.82%E -8.13%K -19.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.79%EV -20.04%E -6.68%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.16%EV -18.46%E -5.13%K -7.10%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-03 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%4.0%2026-10-03 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%4.2%2026-10-03 13:10
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%4.3%2026-10-03 13:55
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%5.0%2026-10-03 13:15
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%5.0%2026-10-03 13:55
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-03 13:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-03 13:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-03 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-10-03 09:44
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-10-03 09:44
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-10-03 09:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%6.2%2026-10-03 13:10
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%6.7%2026-10-03 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-10-03 05:40
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-10-03 05:50
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-10-03 05:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%7.6%2026-10-03 05:35
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 61.89%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.11%8.4%2026-10-03 13:10