The School of Odds
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SaiPa v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 62.24%1.61fair odd
EV +16.39%
Edge +8.76%
Kelly +18.84%
Growth +3.09%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%62.12%62.50%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.531.501.8766.67%65.15%66.67%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 37.76%2.65fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%37.88%37.50%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.482.552.6053.48%40.29%39.22%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 62.24%; HPK (Visit): 37.76%. For SaiPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.39%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +16.39%E +8.76%K +18.84%G +3.09%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -29.39%E -15.72%K -33.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 14:49
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -1.04%E -0.652%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -8.62%E -3.56%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 12:30
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -2.90%E -1.86%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -7.87%E -3.22%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 14:01
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.15%E -2.69%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.71%E -1.46%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 12:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.77%E -3.12%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.49%E -3.06%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 12:30
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.39%E -3.55%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.71%E -1.46%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 10:15
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.39%E -3.55%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.71%E -1.46%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 10:15
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.83%E -0.702%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 22:04
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.83%E -0.702%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.83%E -0.702%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 22:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.83%E -0.702%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 22:04
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.71%E -1.46%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 08:29
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.71%E -1.46%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 08:29
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.71%E -1.46%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 08:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.49%E -3.06%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 11:20
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.49%E -3.06%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.49%E -3.06%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 11:20
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.64%E -4.43%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.49%E -3.06%K -5.17%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%4.3%2026-02-28 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%4.3%2026-02-28 14:50
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%8.3%2026-02-28 12:31

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.74%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.61%2.8%2026-02-28 08:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.74%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.61%2.8%2026-02-28 08:28
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.74%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.61%2.8%2026-02-28 08:29
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.70%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%4.05I 24.69%NM 24.00%2.9%2026-02-28 10:15
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%6.1%2026-02-28 08:29
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%6.1%2026-02-28 08:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%6.1%2026-02-28 08:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%6.1%2026-02-28 08:29
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-02-28 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%8.9%2026-02-28 12:30
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.69%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%9.3%2026-02-28 08:29
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.79%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.51%9.4%2026-02-28 12:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%10.8%2026-02-28 12:30
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%10.9%2026-02-28 12:30
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.42%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%12.2%2026-02-28 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.02%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.21%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.78%16.2%2026-02-28 12:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 49.67%3.08I 32.47%NM 27.74%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.60%17.1%2026-02-28 14:34