The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SaiPa v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 63.72%1.57fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -6.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.11%63.84%63.56%65.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.481.5269.44%67.77%67.57%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 36.28%2.76fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.754%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.94%36.16%36.44%36.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.642.632.7038.46%37.95%38.10%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 63.72%; HPK (Visit): 36.28%. For HPK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -2.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.15%E -2.07%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.66%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 13:13
theScore Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.79%E -2.51%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.85%E -1.45%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 13:14
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -3.79%E -2.51%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -4.21%E -1.60%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 14:30
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.42%E -2.95%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.66%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 14:30
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.42%E -2.95%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.66%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.42%E -2.95%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.66%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 15:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.42%E -2.95%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.66%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 15:34
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -5.70%E -3.85%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -3.12%E -1.17%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 14:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.70%E -3.85%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.66%E -2.18%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 13:15
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.61%E -5.25%K -16.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.04%E -0.754%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 13:55
Bally Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.61%E -5.25%K -16.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.04%E -0.754%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 13:54
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.61%E -5.25%K -16.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.04%E -0.754%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.25%E -5.73%K -18.74%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.58%E -1.74%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 08:00
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.25%E -5.73%K -18.74%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.58%E -1.74%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-14 08:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.25%E -5.73%K -18.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.94%E -1.89%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 07:59
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.25%E -5.73%K -18.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.94%E -1.89%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-14 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50%1.3%2026-10-15 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50%1.3%2026-10-15 15:25
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%4.3%2026-10-15 15:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.72%2.8%2026-10-15 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.1%2026-10-15 13:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.1%2026-10-15 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03%4.1%2026-10-15 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.1%2026-10-15 13:15
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%6.2%2026-10-15 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%6.8%2026-10-15 13:55
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%6.8%2026-10-15 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%6.8%2026-10-15 13:55
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%6.8%2026-10-15 13:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%8.6%2026-10-15 13:30
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%9.1%2026-10-15 13:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%10.8%2026-10-15 13:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.85%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.87%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%13.0%2026-10-15 15:05
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.13%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%13.0%2026-10-15 13:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%15.9%2026-10-15 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 50.19%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.19%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.61%19.3%2026-10-15 15:20