The School of Odds
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SaiPa v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 51.90%1.93fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.880%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.53%51.72%51.70%53.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.791.801.9660.61%55.72%55.56%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 25.62%3.90fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -0.941%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.80%25.80%25.63%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.603.653.8031.25%27.78%27.40%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.48%4.45fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.618%
Kelly -0.803%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%22.48%22.67%23.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.064.004.3327.40%24.63%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 51.90%; HIFK (Visit): 25.62%; Draw: 22.48%. For SaiPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.53%EV +1.73%E +0.880%K +1.80%G +0.031%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.35%EV -9.04%E -2.55%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.12%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 09:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.40%EV -2.64%E -0.694%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-17 09:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.40%EV -2.64%E -0.694%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-17 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.06%EV -1.91%E -1.01%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.40%EV -2.64%E -0.694%K -0.941%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%EV -7.84%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-17 09:19
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -5.02%E -2.74%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -6.48%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 09:30
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -5.02%E -2.74%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -6.48%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 09:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -5.02%E -2.74%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -6.48%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.05%EV -5.02%E -2.74%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.59%EV -6.48%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 09:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.67%EV -6.58%E -3.65%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -3.92%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -3.35%E -0.779%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 12:45
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.81%EV -7.62%E -4.28%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.48%EV -5.45%E -1.48%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.71%EV -2.67%E -0.618%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 13:30
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -8.14%E -4.60%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -10.32%E -2.95%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 12:45
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -10.21%E -5.90%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.76%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.09%E -2.52%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-17 12:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -10.73%E -6.24%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -5.20%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-16 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.41%EV -10.73%E -6.24%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -11.60%E -3.36%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -5.60%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-17 12:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.70%EV -11.25%E -6.58%K -15.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -11.60%E -3.36%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -12.34%E -3.16%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-17 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.70%EV -12.81%E -7.62%K -18.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -15.45%E -4.68%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.99%EV -11.22%E -2.84%K -3.80%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-17 12:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 50.82%EV -14.36%E -8.71%K -22.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.20%EV -18.01%E -5.63%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.97%EV -17.96%E -4.92%K -6.78%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-17 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%3.7%2026-10-17 13:00
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%4.1%2026-10-17 13:20
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%4.3%2026-10-17 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%5.0%2026-10-17 13:35
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-17 12:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-17 12:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-17 12:35
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-17 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-17 09:15
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-17 09:15
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%5.1%2026-10-17 09:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%6.0%2026-10-17 12:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 63.16%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.84%7.7%2026-10-17 13:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-10-16 18:30
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-10-16 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-10-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%7.9%2026-10-16 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%8.0%2026-10-17 13:35
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34%8.3%2026-10-17 12:45