The School of Odds
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SaiPa v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-04-13 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 67.32%1.49fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.73%67.22%67.29%68.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.401.4674.07%71.43%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 32.68%3.06fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -0.974%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.66%32.78%32.71%34.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.0036.36%34.45%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 67.32%; Ässät (Visit): 32.68%. For SaiPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.46, with an expected value of -1.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -1.72%E -1.18%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -8.49%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-13 14:20
theScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.06%E -2.13%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-13 09:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.74%E -2.61%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -10.12%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 05:50
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.95%E -0.650%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-13 14:20
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.95%E -0.650%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-13 14:20
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-13 13:49
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.61%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-13 13:50
Bally Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.08%E -3.61%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-13 13:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 05:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 05:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 05:50
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 06:30
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -6.43%E -4.63%K -16.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -1.95%E -0.650%K -0.974%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-13 14:45
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.12%E -6.76%K -26.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 06:20
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.12%E -6.76%K -26.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 06:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.12%E -6.76%K -26.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 06:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.12%E -6.76%K -26.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.22%E -1.80%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-13 06:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%3.2%2026-04-13 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 67.14%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%6.4%2026-04-13 15:00
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 68.54%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.46%8.9%2026-04-13 15:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.88%4.65I 21.51%NM 21.01%4.05I 24.69%NM 24.12%2.4%2026-04-13 12:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.5%2026-04-13 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.5%2026-04-13 13:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%3.5%2026-04-13 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%5.4%2026-04-12 06:40
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-04-13 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-04-13 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-04-13 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-04-13 13:50
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.36%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-04-13 14:45
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%8.5%2026-04-12 12:45
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%9.4%2026-04-13 13:49
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%9.9%2026-04-12 06:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.46%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%10.6%2026-04-12 06:40
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%10.8%2026-04-13 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%12.5%2026-04-13 13:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.43%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.35%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.22%14.8%2026-04-12 06:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%15.8%2026-04-13 12:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 53.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.64%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.42%15.9%2026-04-13 13:29