The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SaiPa v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 65.94%1.52fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.729%
Kelly -2.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.29%65.83%65.76%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.441.5071.43%69.73%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 34.06%2.94fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.420%
Kelly -0.641%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%34.17%34.24%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.792.802.9037.74%35.86%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 65.94%; Ässät (Visit): 34.06%. For SaiPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -1.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.09%E -0.729%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -8.03%E -2.97%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-08 14:34
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -3.73%E -2.56%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -3.94%E -1.40%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-08 11:00
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -3.73%E -2.56%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -3.94%E -1.40%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-08 11:00
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.39%E -3.03%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -5.65%E -2.04%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 15:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.39%E -3.03%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.73%E -3.67%K -5.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 14:34
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.33%E -2.30%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-07 17:54
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.33%E -2.30%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-07 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.33%E -2.30%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-07 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.05%E -3.51%K -11.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.33%E -2.30%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-07 17:55
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.71%E -3.99%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.22%E -0.420%K -0.641%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-08 09:05
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.71%E -3.99%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.92%E -1.02%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 18:44
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.37%E -4.49%K -15.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -2.92%E -1.02%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-07 18:44
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.37%E -4.49%K -15.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -2.92%E -1.02%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-07 18:44
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.62%E -1.65%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.62%E -1.65%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 08:30
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.62%E -1.65%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 08:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.69%E -5.49%K -19.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.62%E -1.65%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-07 08:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 64.97%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.03%1.9%2026-04-08 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%4.7%2026-04-08 15:25
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%8.2%2026-04-08 14:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.99%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%3.1%2026-04-08 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%3.2%2026-04-08 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%3.2%2026-04-08 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%3.2%2026-04-08 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%5.1%2026-04-08 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-04-08 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-04-08 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-04-08 11:00
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.3%2026-04-08 11:00
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.15%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.22%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.63%6.3%2026-04-08 15:10
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%8.2%2026-04-08 14:35
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.56%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%9.2%2026-04-08 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.90%11.4%2026-04-08 14:35
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%11.6%2026-04-07 22:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.08%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.56%12.2%2026-04-08 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%12.7%2026-04-08 14:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.99%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.85%15.2%2026-04-08 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.20%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.87%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.94%15.4%2026-04-08 14:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 51.45%3.37I 29.67%NM 25.34%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.21%17.1%2026-04-08 15:02