The School of Odds
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SaiPa v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 69.82%1.43fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -5.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%69.94%69.52%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.351.361.4075.19%73.91%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 30.18%3.31fair odd
EV +1.09%
Edge +0.325%
Kelly +0.463%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%30.06%30.48%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.103.3533.33%31.75%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 69.82%; Ässät (Visit): 30.18%. For Ässät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.09%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.44%E -4.80%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +1.09%E +0.325%K +0.463%G +0.005%4.5%2026-04-03 11:19
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.13%E -5.36%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.421%E -0.127%K -0.183%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-03 11:20
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.13%E -5.36%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.421%E -0.127%K -0.183%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-03 11:20
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.21%EV -7.13%E -5.36%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.79%EV -0.722%E -0.220%K -0.315%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-03 11:20
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.64%E -2.64%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.95%E -1.57%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 13:00
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.64%E -2.64%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.95%E -1.57%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-03 13:00
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.25%E -1.60%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-03 10:00
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -2.94%E -2.12%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-02 08:44
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.04%E -3.71%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 05:00
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.04%E -3.71%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 04:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.04%E -3.71%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 05:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.04%E -3.71%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.13%E -5.36%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 13:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.13%E -5.36%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 13:30
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.13%E -5.36%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 13:30
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.13%E -5.36%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.46%E -2.08%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 13:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.04%E -3.71%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.47%E -3.16%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%4.3%2026-04-03 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-04-03 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-04-03 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.19%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.47%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.35%2.9%2026-04-03 09:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%3.3%2026-04-03 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%3.3%2026-04-03 12:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.05%3.3%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.83%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.55%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%5.4%2026-04-03 10:00
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.46%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.30%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.24%6.2%2026-04-03 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.28%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%6.6%2026-04-03 13:00
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.58%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%7.9%2026-04-03 04:59
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.23%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%10.1%2026-04-03 13:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.15%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%10.2%2026-04-03 13:20
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.59%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%10.6%2026-04-03 09:59
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%11.8%2026-04-03 13:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.14%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.69%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.18%12.4%2026-04-03 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.29%14.5%2026-04-03 13:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%15.9%2026-04-03 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 55.89%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.62%3.98I 25.13%NM 21.49%16.9%2026-04-03 13:33